Projections and Epidemiology of Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States to 2040-2060

Abstract

Background

National projections of future joint arthroplasties are useful in understanding the changing burden of surgery and related outcomes on the health system. The aim of this study is to update the literature by producing Medicare projections for revision total joint arthroplasty procedures from 2040 through 2060.

Methods

The study uses 2000-2019 data from the CMS Medicare Part-B National Summary and combines procedure counts using CPT codes for revision total joint arthroplasty procedures. In 2019, revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) procedures totaled 53,217 and 30,541, respectively, forming a baseline from which we generated point forecasts between 2020 and 2060 and 95% forecast intervals (FI).

Results

On average, the model projects an annual growth rate of 1.77% for rTHAs and 4.67% for rTKAs. By 2040, rTHAs were projected to be 43,514 (95% FI = 37,429-50,589) and rTKAs were projected to be 115,147 (95% FI = 105,640-125,510). By 2060, rTHAs was projected to be 61,764 (95% FI = 49,927-76,408) and rTKAs were projected to be 286,740 (95% FI = 253,882-323,852).

Conclusions

Based on 2019 total volume counts, the log-linear exponential model forecasts an increase in rTHA procedures of 42% by 2040 and 101% by 2060. Similarly, the estimated increase for rTKA is projected to be 149% by 2040 and 520% by 2060. An accurate projection of future revision procedure demands is important to understand future healthcare utilization and surgeon demand. This finding is only applicable to the Medicare population and demands further analysis for other population groups.