Prediction Success of Machine Learning Methods for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Tafresh Watershed, Iran

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Abstract

Floods are some of the most destructive and catastrophic disasters worldwide. Development of management plans needs a deep understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of future flood events. The purpose of this research was to estimate flash flood susceptibility in the Tafresh watershed, Iran, using five machine learning methods, i.e., alternating decision tree (ADT), functional tree (FT), kernel logistic regression (KLR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA). A geospatial database including 320 historical flood events was constructed and eight geo-environmental variables—elevation, slope, slope aspect, distance from rivers, average annual rainfall, land use, soil type, and lithology—were used as flood influencing factors. Based on a variety of performance metrics, it is revealed that the ADT method was dominant over the other methods. The FT method was ranked as the second-best method, followed by the KLR, MLP, and QDA. Given a few differences between the goodness-of-fit and prediction success of the methods, we concluded that all these five machine-learning-based models are applicable for flood susceptibility mapping in other areas to protect societies from devastating floods.

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Is Open Access

Predicting Slope Stability Failure through Machine Learning Paradigms

Bui, Moayedi, Gör … (2019)

In this study, we employed various machine learning-based techniques in predicting factor of safety against slope failures. Different regression methods namely, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Gaussian process regression (GPR), multiple linear regression (MLR), simple linear regression (SLR), support vector regression (SVR) were used. Traditional methods of slope analysis (e.g., first established in the first half of the twentieth century) used widely as engineering design tools. Offering more progressive design tools, such as machine learning-based predictive algorithms, they draw the attention of many researchers. The main objective of the current study is to evaluate and optimize various machine learning-based and multilinear regression models predicting the safety factor. To prepare training and testing datasets for the predictive models, 630 finite limit equilibrium analysis modelling (i.e., a database including 504 training datasets and 126 testing datasets) were employed on a single-layered cohesive soil layer. The estimated results for the presented database from GPR, MLR, MLP, SLR, and SVR were assessed by various methods. Firstly, the efficiency of applied models was calculated employing various statistical indices. As a result, obtained total scores 20, 35, 50, 10, and 35, respectively for GPR, MLR, MLP, SLR, and SVR, revealed that the MLP outperformed other machine learning-based models. In addition, SVR and MLR presented an almost equal accuracy in estimation, for both training and testing phases. Note that, an acceptable degree of efficiency was obtained for GPR and SLR models. However, GPR showed more precision. Following this, the equation of applied MLP and MLR models (i.e., in their optimal condition) was derived, due to the reliability of their results, to be used in similar slope stability problems.