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Abstract
<p class="first" id="d1656144e79">Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) allows open-air elevation
of [CO2 ] without altering
the microclimate. Its scale uniquely supports simultaneous study from physiology and
yield to soil processes and disease. In 2005 we summarized results of then 28 published
observations by meta-analysis. Subsequent studies have combined FACE with temperature,
drought, ozone, and nitrogen treatments. Here, we summarize the results of now almost
250 observations, spanning 14 sites and five continents. Across 186 independent studies
of 18 C3 crops, elevation of [CO2 ] by ca. 200 ppm caused a ca. 18% increase in yield
under non-stress conditions. Legumes and root crops showed a greater increase and
cereals less. Nitrogen deficiency reduced the average increase to 10%, as did warming
by ca. 2°C. Two conclusions of the 2005 analysis were that C4 crops would not be more
productive in elevated [CO2 ], except under drought, and that yield responses of C3
crops were diminished by nitrogen deficiency and wet conditions. Both stand the test
of time. Further studies of maize and sorghum showed no yield increase, except in
drought, while soybean productivity was negatively affected by early growing season
wet conditions. Subsequent study showed reduced levels of nutrients, notably Zn and
Fe in most crops, and lower nitrogen and protein in the seeds of non-leguminous crops.
Testing across crop germplasm revealed sufficient variation to maintain nutrient content
under rising [CO2 ]. A strong correlation of yield response under elevated [CO2 ]
to genetic yield potential in both rice and soybean was observed. Rice cultivars with
the highest yield potential showed a 35% yield increase in elevated [CO2 ] compared
to an average of 14%. Future FACE experiments have the potential to develop cultivars
and management strategies for co-promoting sustainability and productivity under future
elevated [CO2 ].
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Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.
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