Core Elements of a National COVID-19 Strategy: Lessons Learned from the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy

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Abstract

COVID-19 has caused devastating health consequences and social inequities globally and in the United States. Unfortunately, the US has not developed a comprehensive National COVID-19 Strategy. In this editorial, we briefly review lessons about the development, structure, implementation and evaluation of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) for the US, and use these lessons to inform an initial proposal for a timely, dynamic, evidence-based, participatory, comprehensive and impactful National COVID-19 Strategy. Without such a strategy, the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic will remain uneven across jurisdictions and less than optimally impactful on disease-related mortality, short- and long-term morbidity, and health and social inequities.

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Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy … (2020)

Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that-for all of the countries we consider here-current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt < 1.0 is greater than 99%) and achieve control of the epidemic. We estimate that across all 11 countries combined, between 12 and 15 million individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May 2020, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions-and lockdowns in particular-have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.

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Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States

A. Paltiel, Amy M. Zheng, Rochelle P. Walensky (2020)

Key Points Question What screening and isolation programs for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will keep students at US residential colleges safe and permit the reopening of campuses? Findings This analytic modeling study of a hypothetical cohort of 4990 college-age students without SARS-CoV-2 infection and 10 students with undetected asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection suggested that frequent screening (every 2 days) of all students with a low-sensitivity, high-specificity test might be required to control outbreaks with manageable isolation dormitory utilization at a justifiable cost. Meaning In this modeling study, symptom-based screening alone was not sufficient to contain an outbreak, and the safe reopening of campuses in fall 2020 may require screening every 2 days, uncompromising vigilance, and continuous attention to good prevention practices.

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Assessing racial and ethnic disparities using a COVID-19 outcomes continuum for New York State

David Holtgrave, Meredith Barranco, James Tesoriero … (2020)

Purpose Heightened COVID-19 mortality among Black non-Hispanic and Hispanic communities (relative to white non-Hispanic) is well established. This study aims to estimate the relative contributions to fatality disparities in terms of differences in SARS-CoV-2 infections, diagnoses, and disease severity. Methods We constructed COVID-19 outcome continua (similar to the HIV care continuum) for white non-Hispanic, Black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic adults in New York State. For each stage in the COVID-19 outcome continua (population, infection experience, diagnosis, hospitalization, fatality), we synthesized the most recent publicly-available data. We described each continuum using overall percentages, fatality rates, and relative changes between stages, with comparisons between race and ethnicity using risk ratios. Results Estimated per-population COVID-19 fatality rates were 0.03%, 0.18%, and 0.12% for white non-Hispanic, Black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic adults. The 3.48-fold disparity for Hispanic, relative to white, communities was explained by differences in infection-experience, whereas the 5.38-fold disparity for non-Hispanic Black, relative to white, communities was primarily driven by differences in both infection-experience and in the need for hospitalization, given infection. Conclusions These findings suggest the most impactful stages upon which to intervene with programs and policies to build COVID-19 health equity.

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Author and article information

Journal

Title: AIDS and Behavior

Abbreviated Title: AIDS Behav

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

ISSN (Print): 1090-7165

ISSN (Electronic): 1573-3254

Publication date (Electronic): September 21 2020

Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10461-020-03045-3

SO-VID: 2aeb766b-3bff-4aa5-8fcc-488de51b130d

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http://www.springer.com/tdm

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Core Elements of a National COVID-19 Strategy: Lessons Learned from the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy

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Most cited references 6

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States

Assessing racial and ethnic disparities using a COVID-19 outcomes continuum for New York State

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