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      Performance of Comprehensive Risk Adjustment for the Prediction of In-Hospital Events Using Administrative Healthcare Data: The Queralt Indices.

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          Abstract

          Accurate risk adjustment is crucial for healthcare management and benchmarking.

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          Most cited references15

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          Why Summary Comorbidity Measures Such As the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Elixhauser Score Work.

          Comorbidity adjustment is an important component of health services research and clinical prognosis. When adjusting for comorbidities in statistical models, researchers can include comorbidities individually or through the use of summary measures such as the Charlson Comorbidity Index or Elixhauser score. We examined the conditions under which individual versus summary measures are most appropriate.
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            Systematic review of comorbidity indices for administrative data.

            Adjustment for comorbidities is common in performance benchmarking and risk prediction. Despite the exponential upsurge in the number of articles citing or comparing Charlson, Elixhauser, and their variants, no systematic review has been conducted on studies comparing comorbidity measures in use with administrative data. We present a systematic review of these multiple comparison studies and introduce a new meta-analytical approach to identify the best performing comorbidity measures/indices for short-term (inpatient + ≤ 30 d) and long-term (outpatient+>30 d) mortality. Articles up to March 18, 2011 were searched based on our predefined terms. The bibliography of the chosen articles and the relevant reviews were also searched and reviewed. Multiple comparisons between comorbidity measures/indices were split into all possible pairs. We used the hypergeometric test and confidence intervals for proportions to identify the comparators with significantly superior/inferior performance for short-term and long-term mortality. In addition, useful information such as the influence of lookback periods was extracted and reported. Out of 1312 retrieved articles, 54 articles were eligible. The Deyo variant of Charlson was the most commonly referred comparator followed by the Elixhauser measure. Compared with baseline variables such as age and sex, comorbidity adjustment methods seem to better predict long-term than short-term mortality and Elixhauser seems to be the best predictor for this outcome. For short-term mortality, however, recalibration giving empirical weights seems more important than the choice of comorbidity measure. The performance of a given comorbidity measure depends on the patient group and outcome. In general, the Elixhauser index seems the best so far, particularly for mortality beyond 30 days, although several newer, more inclusive measures are promising.
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              Choosing a future for epidemiology: I. Eras and paradigms.

              To inform choices about the future of epidemiology, the present condition of epidemiology is examined, in terms of its evolution through three eras, each demarcated by its own paradigm: (1) the era of sanitary statistics with its paradigm, miasma; (2) the era of infectious disease epidemiology with its paradigm, the germ theory; and (3) the era of chronic disease epidemiology with its paradigm, the black box. The historical context in which these eras arose is briefly described. In each era, the public health was at the center of the concerns of the founders and early protagonists of the prevailing paradigm. Around this intellectual development we weave a further theme. We argue that in the present era, the public health has become less central a concern. At the same time, in epidemiology today the dominant black box paradigm is of declining utility and is likely soon to be superseded.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Risk Manag Healthc Policy
                Risk management and healthcare policy
                Informa UK Limited
                1179-1594
                1179-1594
                2020
                : 13
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Catalan Institute of Health, Barcelona, Spain.
                [2 ] Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD, USA.
                [3 ] Bellvitge University Hospital, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
                [4 ] Vall d'Hebron Hospital, Barcelona, Spain.
                [5 ] Vall d'Hebron Research Institute (VHIR), Barcelona, Spain.
                [6 ] Catalan Health Service, Barcelona, Spain.
                [7 ] Catalan Health Department, Barcelona, Spain.
                [8 ] Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO), Barcelona, Spain.
                [9 ] University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
                Article
                228415
                10.2147/RMHP.S228415
                7125405
                32280290
                8196134b-c33a-4113-afe2-068a25bc157e
                © 2020 Monterde et al.
                History

                Queralt’s indices,benchmarking,case-mix,comorbidity,discrimination,multimorbidity,risk

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