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      Is It Possible to Predict Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery?—External Validation of Predictive Models

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          Abstract

          Background

          Bariatric surgery is the most effective obesity treatment. Weight loss varies among patients, and not everyone achieves desired outcome. Identification of predictive factors for weight loss after bariatric surgery resulted in several prediction tools proposed. We aimed to validate the performance of available prediction models for weight reduction 1 year after surgical treatment.

          Materials and Methods

          The retrospective analysis included patients after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) or sleeve gastrectomy (SG) who completed 1-year follow-up. Postoperative body mass index (BMI) predicted by 12 models was calculated for each patient. The correlation between predicted and observed BMI was assessed using linear regression. Accuracy was evaluated by squared Pearson’s correlation coefficient ( R 2). Goodness-of-fit was assessed by standard error of estimate (SE) and paired sample t test between estimated and observed BMI.

          Results

          Out of 760 patients enrolled, 509 (67.00%) were women with median age 42 years. Of patients, 65.92% underwent SG and 34.08% had RYGB. Median BMI decreased from 45.19 to 32.53kg/m 2 after 1 year. EWL amounted to 62.97%. All models presented significant relationship between predicted and observed BMI in linear regression (correlation coefficient between 0.29 and 1.22). The best predictive model explained 24% variation of weight reduction (adjusted R 2=0.24). Majority of models overestimated outcome with SE 5.03 to 5.13kg/m 2.

          Conclusion

          Although predicted BMI had reasonable correlation with observed values, none of evaluated models presented acceptable accuracy. All models tend to overestimate the outcome. Accurate tool for weight loss prediction should be developed to enhance patient’s assessment.

          Graphical abstract

          Supplementary Information

          The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11695-021-05341-w.

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          Most cited references29

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            Bariatric Surgery Worldwide: Baseline Demographic Description and One-Year Outcomes from the Fourth IFSO Global Registry Report 2018

            Since 2014, the International Federation for the Surgery of Obesity and Metabolic Disorders (IFSO) has produced an annual report of all bariatric surgery submitted to the Global Registry. We describe baseline demographics of international practice from the 4th report.
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              Seven-Year Weight Trajectories and Health Outcomes in the Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS) Study

              This multicenter longitudinal study examines long-term weight change and health status following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. Question What are the 7-year weight and comorbid health changes following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding? Findings In this multicenter longitudinal study, 7-year mean weight loss was 28.4% with weight regain after 3 years of 3.9% for Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and 14.9% with 1.4% weight regain for laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was reduced 7 years following both procedures, and diabetes and hypertension prevalence were reduced following gastric bypass; remission of diabetes at 7 years was 60.2% for Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and 20.3% for laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. Meaning Most participants maintained much of their weight loss with variable fluctuations over the longer term, and comorbid health improvements were sustained after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. Importance More information is needed about the durability of weight loss and health improvements after bariatric surgical procedures. Objective To examine long-term weight change and health status following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB). Design, Setting, and Participants The Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS) study is a multicenter observational cohort study at 10 US hospitals in 6 geographically diverse clinical centers. Adults undergoing bariatric surgical procedures as part of clinical care between 2006 and 2009 were recruited and followed up until January 31, 2015. Participants completed presurgery, 6-month, and annual research assessments for up to 7 years. Main Outcome and Measures Percentage of weight change from baseline, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, determined by physical measures, laboratory testing, and medication use. Results Of 2348 participants, 1738 underwent RYGB (74%) and 610 underwent LAGB (26%). For RYBG, the median age was 45 years (range, 19-75 years), the median body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) was 47 (range, 34-81), 1389 participants (80%) were women, and 257 participants (15%) were nonwhite. For LAGB, the median age was 48 years (range, 18-78), the body mass index was 44 (range, 33-87), 465 participants (76%) were women, and 63 participants (10%) were nonwhite. Follow-up weights were obtained in 1300 of 1569 (83%) eligible for a year-7 visit. Seven years following RYGB, mean weight loss was 38.2 kg (95% CI, 36.9-39.5), or 28.4% (95% CI, 27.6-29.2) of baseline weight; between years 3 and 7 mean weight regain was 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4-4.4) of baseline weight. Seven years after LAGB, mean weight loss was 18.8 kg (95% CI, 16.3-21.3) or 14.9% (95% CI, 13.1-16.7), with 1.4% (95% CI, 0.4-2.4) regain. Six distinct weight change trajectory patterns for RYGB and 7 for LAGB were identified. Most participants followed trajectories in which weight regain from 3 to 7 years was small relative to year-3 weight loss, but patterns were variable. Compared with baseline, dyslipidemia prevalence was lower 7 years following both procedures; diabetes and hypertension prevalence were lower following RYGB only. Among those with diabetes at baseline (488 of 1723 with RYGB [28%]; 175 of 604 with LAGB [29%]), the proportion in remission at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years were 71.2% (95% CI, 67.0-75.4), 69.4% (95% CI, 65.0-73.8), 64.6% (95% CI, 60.0-69.2), and 60.2% (95% CI, 54.7-65.6), respectively, for RYGB and 30.7% (95% CI, 22.8-38.7), 29.3% (95% CI, 21.6-37.1), 29.2% (95% CI, 21.0-37.4), and 20.3% (95% CI, 9.7-30.9) for LAGB. The incidence of diabetes at all follow-up assessments was less than 1.5% for RYGB. Bariatric reoperations occurred in 14 RYGB and 160 LAGB participants. Conclusions and Relevance Following bariatric surgery, different weight loss patterns were observed, but most participants maintained much of their weight loss with variable fluctuations over the long term. There was some decline in diabetes remission over time, but the incidence of new cases is low following RYGB. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00465829
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                iza.karpinska@student.uj.edu.pl
                jan.kulawik@uj.edu.pl
                magdalenapisarska@interia.pl
                m.wysocki@doctoral.uj.edu.pl
                michal.pedziwiatr@uj.edu.pl
                piotr.major@uj.edu.pl
                Journal
                Obes Surg
                Obes Surg
                Obesity Surgery
                Springer US (New York )
                0960-8923
                1708-0428
                13 March 2021
                13 March 2021
                2021
                : 31
                : 7
                : 2994-3004
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.5522.0, ISNI 0000 0001 2162 9631, Students’ Scientific Group at 2nd Department of Surgery, , Jagiellonian University Medical College, ; Jakubowskiego 2 st., 30-688 Krakow, Poland
                [2 ]GRID grid.5522.0, ISNI 0000 0001 2162 9631, 2nd Department of General Surgery, , Jagiellonian University Medical College, ; Jakubowskiego 2 st., 30-688 Krakow, Poland
                [3 ]Department of General Surgery and Surgical Oncology, Ludwik Rydygier Memorial Hospital in Cracow, Krakow, Poland
                [4 ]Centre for Research, Training and Innovation in Surgery (CERTAIN Surgery), Jakubowskiego 2 st., 30-688 Krakow, Poland
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6552-7979
                Article
                5341
                10.1007/s11695-021-05341-w
                8175311
                33712937
                f3df2aa6-cace-48f1-aeb5-8e9f64319350
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 12 January 2021
                : 23 February 2021
                : 4 March 2021
                Categories
                Original Contributions
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                © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021

                Surgery
                risk prediction models,external validation,weight loss,bariatric surgery
                Surgery
                risk prediction models, external validation, weight loss, bariatric surgery

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