Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning-based calculator for predicting 5-year weight trajectories after bariatric surgery: a multinational retrospective cohort SOPHIA study

Background While the rising pandemic of obesity has received significant attention in many countries, the effect of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remains uncertain. Methods We analyzed data from 67.8 million individuals to assess the trends in obesity and overweight prevalence among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body mass index (BMI), by age, sex, cause, and BMI level in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. Results In 2015, obesity affected 107.7 million (98.7-118.4) children and 603.7 million (588.2- 619.8) adults worldwide. Obesity prevalence has doubled since 1980 in more than 70 countries and continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries was greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million (2.7- 5.3) deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred among non-obese. More than two-thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden of high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated due to decreases in underlying cardiovascular disease death rates. Conclusions The rapid increase in prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.

Sleeve gastrectomy is increasingly used in the treatment of morbid obesity, but its long-term outcome vs the standard Roux-en-Y gastric bypass procedure is unknown.