“Immuni” and the National Health System: Lessons Learnt from the COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing in Italy

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Abstract

Since the early stage of the current pandemic, digital contact tracing (DCT) through mobile phone apps, called “Immuni”, has been introduced to complement manual contact tracing in Italy. Until 31 December 2021, Immuni identified 44,880 COVID-19 cases, which corresponds to less than 1% of total COVID-19 cases reported in Italy in the same period (5,886,411). Overall, Immuni generated 143,956 notifications. Although the initial download of the Immuni app represented an early interest in the new tool, Immuni has had little adoption across the Italian population, and the recent increase in its download is likely to be related to the mandatory Green Pass certification for conducting most daily activities that can be obtained via the application. Therefore, Immuni failed as a support tool for the contact tracing system. Other European experiences seem to show similar limitations in the use of DTC, leaving open questions about its effectiveness, although in theory, contact tracing could allow useful means of “proximity tracking”.

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Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

Luca Ferretti, Chris Wymant, Michelle L. Kendall … (2020)

The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines (‘lock-downs’) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.

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The Italian health system and the COVID-19 challenge

Benedetta Armocida, Beatrice Formenti, Silvia Ussai … (2020)

Italy is facing a massive burden from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Since Feb 21, 2020, when the first case of COVID-19 was recorded in Italy, the National Healthcare Service, which offers universal access to health care, has faced increasing pressure, with 41 035 total cases of COVID-19 and 3405 deaths as of March 19, 2020. 1 In the most affected regions, the National Healthcare Service is close to collapse—the results of years of fragmentation and decades of finance cuts, privatisation, and deprivation of human and technical resources. The National Healthcare Service is regionally based, with local authorities responsible for the organisation and delivery of health services, leaving the Italian Government with a weak strategic leadership. Over the period 2010–19, the National Healthcare Service suffered financial cuts of more than €37 billion, a progressive privatisation of health-care services. Public health expenditure as a proportion of gross domestic product was 6·6% for the years 2018–20 and is forecast to fall to 6·4% in 2022. 2 The Lombardy region has the heaviest burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, with (as of March 19, 2020) 19 884 total cases of the disease, 2168 deaths, and 1006 patients requiring advanced respiratory support. At its standard operational level, Lombardy has a capacity of 724 intensive care beds. 3 To tackle the medical equipment shortage, Italian Civil Protection undertook a fast-track public procurement to secure 3800 respiratory ventilators, an additional 30 million protective masks, and 67 000 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests. 4 To avert the shortage of health workers produced by decades of inadequate recruitment practices, the Italian Government authorised regions to recruit 20 000 health workers, allocating €660 million for the purpose. 5 There are lessons to be learned from the current COVID-19 pandemic. First, the Italian decentralisation and fragmentation of health services seems to have restricted timely interventions and effectiveness, and stronger national coordination should be in place. Second, health-care systems capacity and financing need to be more flexible to take into account exceptional emergencies. Third, in response to emergencies, solid partnerships between the private and public sector should be institutionalised. Finally, recruitment of human resources must be planned and financed with a long-term vision. Consistent management choices and a strong political commitment are needed to create a more sustainable system for the long run.

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Automated and partly automated contact tracing: a systematic review to inform the control of COVID-19

Isobel Braithwaite, Thomas Callender, Miriam Bullock … (2020)

Summary Evidence for the use of automated or partly automated contact-tracing tools to contain severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is scarce. We did a systematic review of automated or partly automated contact tracing. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, OVID Global Health, EBSCO Medical COVID Information Portal, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv, arXiv, and Google Advanced for articles relevant to COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, influenza, or Ebola virus, published from Jan 1, 2000, to April 14, 2020. We also included studies identified through professional networks up to April 30, 2020. We reviewed all full-text manuscripts. Primary outcomes were the number or proportion of contacts (or subsequent cases) identified. Secondary outcomes were indicators of outbreak control, uptake, resource use, cost-effectiveness, and lessons learnt. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020179822). Of the 4036 studies identified, 110 full-text studies were reviewed and 15 studies were included in the final analysis and quality assessment. No empirical evidence of the effectiveness of automated contact tracing (regarding contacts identified or transmission reduction) was identified. Four of seven included modelling studies that suggested that controlling COVID-19 requires a high population uptake of automated contact-tracing apps (estimates from 56% to 95%), typically alongside other control measures. Studies of partly automated contact tracing generally reported more complete contact identification and follow-up compared with manual systems. Automated contact tracing could potentially reduce transmission with sufficient population uptake. However, concerns regarding privacy and equity should be considered. Well designed prospective studies are needed given gaps in evidence of effectiveness, and to investigate the integration and relative effects of manual and automated systems. Large-scale manual contact tracing is therefore still key in most contexts.