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      Forest mosaics, not savanna corridors, dominated in Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum

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          Significance

          We present new qualitative and statistical analyses of 59 palaeoecological records across Southeast Asia to show that, instead of swings between open savanna and dense rainforest ecosystems, the climatic changes of the Last Glacial Period (119–11.7 ka) and particularly the Last Glacial Maximum (conventionally ~23–19 ka) involved fluid transitions between lowland rainforest, more open canopy seasonally dry forest, and tropical montane forest. This “hybrid” open forest biome provides an alternative to the currently accepted binary ecologies for the region and yields new insights into ecological resilience for tropical forests in Southeast Asia and beyond. Additionally, it points to diversified rather than overturned resource availability for humans that were occupying and migrating through the region.

          Abstract

          The dominant paradigm is that large tracts of Southeast Asia’s lowland rainforests were replaced with a “savanna corridor” during the cooler, more seasonal climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23,000 to 19,000 y ago). This interpretation has implications for understanding the resilience of Asia’s tropical forests to projected climate change, implying a vulnerability to “savannization”. A savanna corridor is also an important foundation for archaeological interpretations of how humans moved through and settled insular Southeast Asia and Australia. Yet an up-to-date, multiproxy, and empirical examination of the palaeoecological evidence for this corridor is lacking. We conducted qualitative and statistical analyses of 59 palaeoecological records across Southeast Asia to test the evidence for LGM savannization and clarify the relationships between methods, biogeography, and ecological change in the region from the start of Late Glacial Period (119,000 y ago) to the present. The pollen records typically show montane forest persistence during the LGM, while δ 13C biomarker proxies indicate the expansion of C 4-rich grasslands. We reconcile this discrepancy by hypothesizing the expansion of montane forest in the uplands and replacement of rainforest with seasonally dry tropical forest in the lowlands. We also find that smooth forest transitions between 34,000 and 2,000 y ago point to the capacity of Southeast Asia’s ecosystems both to resist and recover from climate stressors, suggesting resilience to savannization. Finally, the timing of ecological change observed in our combined datasets indicates an ‘early’ onset of the LGM in Southeast Asia from ~30,000 y ago.

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          A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records

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            A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests.

            The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year(-1) from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1) partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1). Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year(-1), with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.
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              Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena.

              P. Moran (1950)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
                Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
                PNAS
                Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
                National Academy of Sciences
                0027-8424
                1091-6490
                26 December 2023
                2 January 2024
                26 December 2023
                : 121
                : 1
                : e2311280120
                Affiliations
                [1] aisoTROPIC Research Group, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology , Jena 07745, Germany
                [2] bDepartment of Archaeology, Max Planck Institute for Geoanthropology , Jena 07745, Germany
                [3] cSchool of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney , Sydney, NSW 2050, Australia
                [4] dAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage , Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
                [5] eGlobal Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu , College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University , Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
                [6] fBiological and Biomedical Sciences, School of Health and Behavioral Sciences, Bryant University , Smithfield, RI 02917
                [7] gSchool of Culture, History and Language, College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University , Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
                [8] hDepartment of Anthropology, College of Liberal Arts, Purdue University , West Lafayette, IN 47907
                [9] iSchool of Archaeology, University of the Philippines , Quezon City 1101, The Philippines
                Author notes
                1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: rebecca.hamilton@ 123456sydney.edu.au or amano@ 123456gea.mpg.de .

                Edited by Carlos Nobre, University of São Paulo, Sao José dos Campos, Brazil; received July 3, 2023; accepted November 7, 2023

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5443-8353
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7871-2230
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5328-7741
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5040-3911
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7905-0339
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9640-7275
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1354-4870
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4403-7548
                Article
                202311280
                10.1073/pnas.2311280120
                10769823
                38147645
                ddf495b0-3458-412a-88c0-986b5b38ad11
                Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

                This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

                History
                : 03 July 2023
                : 07 November 2023
                Page count
                Pages: 8, Words: 6111
                Funding
                Funded by: EC | ERC | HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council (ERC), FundRef 100019180;
                Award ID: 850709-PANTROPOCENE
                Award Recipient : Rebecca Hamilton Award Recipient : Patrick Roberts
                Funded by: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage;
                Award ID: CE170100015
                Award Recipient : Rebecca Hamilton Award Recipient : Corey J. A. Bradshaw Award Recipient : Frederik Saltre Award Recipient : Janelle Stevenson
                Categories
                research-article, Research Article
                eco, Ecology
                env-sci-soc, Environmental Sciences
                414
                417
                Biological Sciences
                Ecology
                Social Sciences
                Environmental Sciences

                grassland,palaeoenvironmental change,ecological regime shift,monsoon forest

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