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      Mapping potential effects of proposed roads on migratory connectivity for a highly mobile herbivore using circuit theory

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          Abstract

          Migration is common worldwide as species access spatiotemporally varying resources and avoid predators and parasites. However, long‐distance migrations are increasingly imperiled due to development and habitat fragmentation. Improved understanding of migratory behavior has implications for conservation and management of migratory species, allowing identification and protection of seasonal ranges and migration corridors. We present a technique that applies circuit theory to predict future effects of development by analyzing season‐specific resistance to movement from anthropogenic and natural environmental features across an entire migratory path. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by examining potential effects of a proposed road system on barren ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti) and subsistence hunters in northern Alaska. Resource selection functions revealed migratory selection by caribou. We tested five scenarios relating habitat selection to landscape resistance using Circuitscape and GPS telemetry data. To examine the effect of potential roads on connectivity of migrating animals and human hunters, we compared current flow values near communities in the presence of proposed roads. Caribou avoided dense vegetation, rugged terrain, major rivers, and existing roads in both spring and fall. A negative linear relationship between resource selection and landscape resistance was strongly supported for fall migration while spring migration featured a negative logarithmic relationship. Overall patterns of caribou connectivity remained similar in the presence of proposed roads, though reduced current flow was predicted for communities near the center of current migration areas. Such data can inform decisions to allow or disallow projects or to select among alternative development proposals and mitigation measures, though consideration of cumulative effects of development is needed. Our approach is flexible and can easily be adapted to other species, locations and development scenarios to expand understanding of movement behavior and to evaluate proposed developments. Such information is vital to inform policy decisions that balance new development, resource user needs, and preservation of ecosystem function.

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          A power primer.

          One possible reason for the continued neglect of statistical power analysis in research in the behavioral sciences is the inaccessibility of or difficulty with the standard material. A convenient, although not comprehensive, presentation of required sample sizes is provided here. Effect-size indexes and conventional values for these are given for operationally defined small, medium, and large effects. The sample sizes necessary for .80 power to detect effects at these levels are tabled for eight standard statistical tests: (a) the difference between independent means, (b) the significance of a product-moment correlation, (c) the difference between independent rs, (d) the sign test, (e) the difference between independent proportions, (f) chi-square tests for goodness of fit and contingency tables, (g) one-way analysis of variance, and (h) the significance of a multiple or multiple partial correlation.
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            Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4

            Maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of the parameters in linear mixed-effects models can be determined using the lmer function in the lme4 package for R. As for most model-fitting functions in R, the model is described in an lmer call by a formula, in this case including both fixed- and random-effects terms. The formula and data together determine a numerical representation of the model from which the profiled deviance or the profiled REML criterion can be evaluated as a function of some of the model parameters. The appropriate criterion is optimized, using one of the constrained optimization functions in R, to provide the parameter estimates. We describe the structure of the model, the steps in evaluating the profiled deviance or REML criterion, and the structure of classes or types that represents such a model. Sufficient detail is included to allow specialization of these structures by users who wish to write functions to fit specialized linear mixed models, such as models incorporating pedigrees or smoothing splines, that are not easily expressible in the formula language used by lmer. Journal of Statistical Software, 67 (1) ISSN:1548-7660
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              Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                tim_fullman@tws.org
                Journal
                Ecol Appl
                Ecol Appl
                10.1002/(ISSN)1939-5582
                EAP
                Ecological Applications
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                1051-0761
                1939-5582
                18 August 2020
                January 2021
                : 31
                : 1 ( doiID: 10.1002/eap.v31.1 )
                : e2207
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] The Wilderness Society Anchorage Alaska 99501 USA
                [ 2 ] Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve Arctic Inventory and Monitoring Network National Park Service Fairbanks Alaska 99709 USA
                [ 3 ] Grand Teton National Park National Park Service Moose Wyoming 83012 USA
                [ 4 ] Science Applications U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Alaska 99701 USA
                [ 5 ] Science Applications U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
                [ 6 ]Present address: Marine Mammals Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] E‐mail: tim_fullman@ 123456tws.org

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6908-9184
                Article
                EAP2207
                10.1002/eap.2207
                7816249
                32632940
                d4ec1fdd-89b4-4174-befd-fdf9069e441b
                © 2020 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Ecological Society of America

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 23 March 2018
                : 06 April 2020
                : 22 May 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 2, Pages: 15, Words: 11671
                Funding
                Funded by: Wilburforce Foundation , open-funder-registry 10.13039/100001393;
                Award ID: NA
                Categories
                Article
                Articles
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                January 2021
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.9.6 mode:remove_FC converted:20.01.2021

                arctic,caribou,circuitscape,development,disturbance,landscape resistance,management,migration,rangifer tarandus

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