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      Genetic diversity and evolutionary insights of respiratory syncytial virus A ON1 genotype: global and local transmission dynamics

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          Abstract

          Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A ON1 genotype, first detected in 2010 in Ontario, Canada, has been documented in 21 countries to date. This study investigated persistence and transmission dynamics of ON1 by grouping 406 randomly selected RSV-positive specimens submitted to Public Health Ontario from August 2011 to August 2012; RSV-A-positive specimens were genotyped. We identified 370 RSV-A (181 NA1, 135 NA2, 51 ON1 3 GA5) and 36 RSV-B positive specimens. We aligned time-stamped second hypervariable region (330 bp) of G-gene sequence data (global, n = 483; and Ontario, n = 60) to evaluate transmission dynamics. Global data suggests that the most recent common ancestor of ON1 emerged during the 2008–2009 season. Mean evolutionary rate of the global ON1 was 4.10 × 10 −3 substitutions/site/year (95% BCI 3.1–5.0 × 10 −3), not significantly different to that of Ontario ON1. The estimated mean reproductive number ( R 0  = ∼ 1.01) from global and Ontario sequences showed no significant difference and implies stability among global RSV-A ON1. This study suggests that local epidemics exhibit similar underlying evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics to that of the persistent global RSV-A ON1 population. These findings underscore the importance of continual molecular surveillance of RSV in order to gain a better understanding of epidemics.

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          The epidemic behavior of the hepatitis C virus.

          Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading worldwide cause of liver disease. Here, we use a new model of HCV spread to investigate the epidemic behavior of the virus and to estimate its basic reproductive number from gene sequence data. We find significant differences in epidemic behavior among HCV subtypes and suggest that these differences are largely the result of subtype-specific transmission patterns. Our model builds a bridge between the disciplines of population genetics and mathematical epidemiology by using pathogen gene sequences to infer the population dynamic history of an infectious disease.
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            Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis

            Background: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. Objectives: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R 0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. Methods: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R 0. Modeled R 0 increases were compared with R 0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. Results: R 0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971–2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R 0 by factors (2–5 times in Canada and 1.5–2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R 0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Conclusions: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects. Citation: Ogden NH, Radojević M, Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Leighton PA, Wu J. 2014. Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis. Environ Health Perspect 122:631–638; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307799
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              Ten years of global evolution of the human respiratory syncytial virus BA genotype with a 60-nucleotide duplication in the G protein gene.

              The emergence of natural isolates of human respiratory syncytial virus group B (HRSV-B) with a 60-nucleotide (nt) duplication in the G protein gene in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1999 (A. Trento et al., J. Gen. Virol. 84:3115-3120, 2003) and their dissemination worldwide allowed us to use the duplicated segment as a natural tag to examine in detail the evolution of HRSV during propagation in its natural host. Viruses with the duplicated segment were all clustered in a new genotype, named BA (A. Trento et al., J. Virol. 80:975-984, 2006). To obtain information about the prevalence of these viruses in Spain, we tested for the presence of the duplicated segment in positive HRSV-B clinical samples collected at the Severo Ochoa Hospital (Madrid) during 12 consecutive epidemics (1996-1997 to 2007-2008). Viruses with the 60-nt duplication were found in 61 samples, with a high prevalence relative to the rest of B genotypes in the most recent seasons. Global phylogenetic and demographic analysis of all G sequences containing the duplication, collected across five continents up until April 2009, revealed that the prevalence of the BA genotype increased gradually until 2004-2005, despite its rapid dissemination worldwide. After that date and coinciding with a bottleneck effect on the population size, a relatively new BA lineage (BA-IV) replaced all other group B viruses, suggesting further adaptation of the BA genotype to its natural host.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group
                2045-2322
                30 September 2015
                2015
                : 5
                : 14268
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Public Health Ontario , Toronto, Ontario, Canada
                [2 ]University of Waterloo , Waterloo, Ontario, Canada (MPH student)
                [3 ]University of Toronto , Ontario, Canada
                [4 ]Center for Infectious Diseases, The University of Texas School of Public Health , Houston, Texas, United States of America
                [5 ]Mount Sinai Hospital , Toronto, Ontario, Canada
                [6 ]The Hospital for Sick Children , Toronto, Ontario, Canada
                Author notes
                [*]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                Article
                srep14268
                10.1038/srep14268
                4588507
                26420660
                d4818270-98aa-4cf5-9343-a51bae2bee08
                Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 14 April 2015
                : 21 August 2015
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