The influence of climate change on skin cancer incidence – A review of the evidence

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Abstract

Background

Climate change is broadly affecting human health, with grave concern that continued warming of the earth’s atmosphere will result is serious harm. Since the mid-20th century, skin cancer incidence rates have risen at an alarming rate worldwide.

Objective

This review examines the relationship between climate change and cutaneous carcinogenesis.

Methods

A literature review used the National Institutes of Health databases (PubMed and Medline), the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and International Agency for Research on Cancer registries, and published reports by federal and international agencies and consortia, including the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United Nations Environment Programme, World Health Organization, and World Meteorological Organization.

Results

Skin cancer risk is determined by multiple factors, with exposure to ultraviolet radiation being the most important. Strong circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that factors related to climate change, including stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming, and ambient air pollution, have likely contributed to the increasing incidence of cutaneous malignancy globally and will continue to impose a negative on influence skin cancer incidence for many decades to come.

Conclusion

Because much of the data are based on animal studies and computer simulations, establishing a direct and definitive link remains challenging. More epidemiologic studies are needed to prove causality in skin cancer, but the evidence for overall harm to human health as a direct result of climate change is clear. Global action to mitigate these negative impacts to humans and the environment is imperative.

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Most cited references 100

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The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale.

J Lelieveld, J S Evans, M Fnais … (2015)

Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.