Methods for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

In August 1978 “Hazard Lake” released 19.62 × 106 m3 of water through a subglacial tunnel beneath Steele Glacier, Yukon Territory, Canada. The discharge during the outburst flood was measured by recording lake level changes with time, and a peak discharge of approximately 640 m3 s–1 was estimated from the data. We have attempted to model the 1978 flood from “Hazard Lake” using an adaptation of Nye’s (1976) theoretical model for jökulhlaups from Grimsvötn. Our aim has been to calibrate the Nye model as a first step toward using it as a peak discharge estimator for other glacier–dammed basins. The agreement between our measured and simulated hydrographs is good, and we find that creep closure, though included in our analysis, appears to play an insignificant role in limiting the discharge of “Hazard Lake”. Release of thermal energy from the relatively warm lake water is the dominant factor contributing to tunnel enlargement.