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      Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

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          Abstract

          The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

          Abstract

          Public health and social measures for COVID-19 also impacted the incidence of other infectious diseases. In this study, the authors characterise the impacts of these measures on 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China until December 2023.

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          Most cited references36

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          A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)

          COVID-19 has prompted unprecedented government action around the world. We introduce the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), a dataset that addresses the need for continuously updated, readily usable and comparable information on policy measures. From 1 January 2020, the data capture government policies related to closure and containment, health and economic policy for more than 180 countries, plus several countries' subnational jurisdictions. Policy responses are recorded on ordinal or continuous scales for 19 policy areas, capturing variation in degree of response. We present two motivating applications of the data, highlighting patterns in the timing of policy adoption and subsequent policy easing and reimposition, and illustrating how the data can be combined with behavioural and epidemiological indicators. This database enables researchers and policymakers to explore the empirical effects of policy responses on the spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as on economic and social welfare.
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            User's guide to correlation coefficients

            When writing a manuscript, we often use words such as perfect, strong, good or weak to name the strength of the relationship between variables. However, it is unclear where a good relationship turns into a strong one. The same strength of r is named differently by several researchers. Therefore, there is an absolute necessity to explicitly report the strength and direction of r while reporting correlation coefficients in manuscripts. This article aims to familiarize medical readers with several different correlation coefficients reported in medical manuscripts, clarify confounding aspects and summarize the naming practices for the strength of correlation coefficients.
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              Automatic Time Series Forecasting: TheforecastPackage forR

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                ndyfy02258@ncu.edu.cn
                chentianmu@xmu.edu.cn
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                8 May 2024
                8 May 2024
                2024
                : 15
                : 3891
                Affiliations
                [1 ]State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, ( https://ror.org/00mcjh785) Xiamen, China
                [2 ]Health Care Departmen, Women and Children’s Hospital, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, ( https://ror.org/00mcjh785) Xiamen, China
                [3 ]Jiangxi Medical Center for Critical Public Health Events, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, ( https://ror.org/042v6xz23) Nanchang, China
                [4 ]Jiangxi Hospital of China–Japan Friendship Hospital, ( https://ror.org/037cjxp13) Nanchang, China
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5583-0648
                http://orcid.org/0009-0008-3411-5304
                http://orcid.org/0009-0003-1680-1849
                http://orcid.org/0009-0009-7014-1363
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0710-5086
                Article
                48201
                10.1038/s41467-024-48201-8
                11079007
                38719858
                c0dca6d7-32d1-4c95-bcf0-21e860b1bcdf
                © The Author(s) 2024

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 19 November 2023
                : 24 April 2024
                Categories
                Article
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Nature Limited 2024

                Uncategorized
                bacterial infection,viral infection,viral hepatitis,epidemiology,sars-cov-2
                Uncategorized
                bacterial infection, viral infection, viral hepatitis, epidemiology, sars-cov-2

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