Identification of Low- and High-Impact Hemagglutinin Amino Acid Substitutions That Drive Antigenic Drift of Influenza A(H1N1) Viruses

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Abstract

Determining phenotype from genetic data is a fundamental challenge. Identification of emerging antigenic variants among circulating influenza viruses is critical to the vaccine virus selection process, with vaccine effectiveness maximized when constituents are antigenically similar to circulating viruses. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay data are commonly used to assess influenza antigenicity. Here, sequence and 3-D structural information of hemagglutinin (HA) glycoproteins were analyzed together with corresponding HI assay data for former seasonal influenza A(H1N1) virus isolates (1997–2009) and reference viruses. The models developed identify and quantify the impact of eighteen amino acid substitutions on the antigenicity of HA, two of which were responsible for major transitions in antigenic phenotype. We used reverse genetics to demonstrate the causal effect on antigenicity for a subset of these substitutions. Information on the impact of substitutions allowed us to predict antigenic phenotypes of emerging viruses directly from HA gene sequence data and accuracy was doubled by including all substitutions causing antigenic changes over a model incorporating only the substitutions with the largest impact. The ability to quantify the phenotypic impact of specific amino acid substitutions should help refine emerging techniques that predict the evolution of virus populations from one year to the next, leading to stronger theoretical foundations for selection of candidate vaccine viruses. These techniques have great potential to be extended to other antigenically variable pathogens.

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J Skehel, D Wiley (2000)

Hemagglutinin (HA) is the receptor-binding and membrane fusion glycoprotein of influenza virus and the target for infectivity-neutralizing antibodies. The structures of three conformations of the ectodomain of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza virus HA have been determined by X-ray crystallography: the single-chain precursor, HA0; the metastable neutral-pH conformation found on virus, and the fusion pH-induced conformation. These structures provide a framework for designing and interpreting the results of experiments on the activity of HA in receptor binding, the generation of emerging and reemerging epidemics, and membrane fusion during viral entry. Structures of HA in complex with sialic acid receptor analogs, together with binding experiments, provide details of these low-affinity interactions in terms of the sialic acid substituents recognized and the HA residues involved in recognition. Neutralizing antibody-binding sites surround the receptor-binding pocket on the membrane-distal surface of HA, and the structures of the complexes between neutralizing monoclonal Fabs and HA indicate possible neutralization mechanisms. Cleavage of the biosynthetic precursor HA0 at a prominent loop in its structure primes HA for subsequent activation of membrane fusion at endosomal pH (Figure 1). Priming involves insertion of the fusion peptide into a charged pocket in the precursor; activation requires its extrusion towards the fusion target membrane, as the N terminus of a newly formed trimeric coiled coil, and repositioning of the C-terminal membrane anchor near the fusion peptide at the same end of a rod-shaped molecule. Comparison of this new HA conformation, which has been formed for membrane fusion, with the structures determined for other virus fusion glycoproteins suggests that these molecules are all in the fusion-activated conformation and that the juxtaposition of the membrane anchor and fusion peptide, a recurring feature, is involved in the fusion mechanism. Extension of these comparisons to the soluble N-ethyl-maleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor (SNARE) protein complex of vesicle fusion allows a similar conclusion.

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We develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to estimating the posterior distribution of phylogenies based on aligned DNA/RNA sequences under several hierarchical evolutionary models. Using a proper, yet nontruncated and uninformative prior, we demonstrate the advantages of the Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing and estimation in phylogenetics by comparing different models for the infinitesimal rates of change among nucleotides, for the number of rate classes, and for the relationships among branch lengths. We compare the relative probabilities of these models and the appropriateness of a molecular clock using Bayes factors. Our most general model, first proposed by Tamura and Nei, parameterizes the infinitesimal change probabilities among nucleotides (A, G, C, T/U) into six parameters, consisting of three parameters for the nucleotide stationary distribution, two rate parameters for nucleotide transitions, and another parameter for nucleotide transversions. Nested models include the Hasegawa, Kishino, and Yano model with equal transition rates and the Kimura model with a uniform stationary distribution and equal transition rates. To illustrate our methods, we examine simulated data, 16S rRNA sequences from 15 contemporary eubacteria, halobacteria, eocytes, and eukaryotes, 9 primates, and the entire HIV genome of 11 isolates. We find that the Kimura model is too restrictive, that the Hasegawa, Kishino, and Yano model can be rejected for some data sets, that there is evidence for more than one rate class and a molecular clock among similar taxa, and that a molecular clock can be rejected for more distantly related taxa.

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THE QUANTITATIVE DETERMINATION OF INFLUENZA VIRUS AND ANTIBODIES BY MEANS OF RED CELL AGGLUTINATION

George Hirst (1942)

1. The agglutination titer for chicken red cells of freshly prepared or carefully stored suspensions of PR8 influenza virus, that is to say virus of maximum pathogenicity, was found to be proportional to the mouse lethal titer of the same preparations. 2. The agglutination titer of infected allantoic fluid procured in a standard way is relatively constant, regardless of the influenza strain used and its pathogenicity for mice. 3. Virus preparations inactivated by heat or storage may retain their agglutinating power. 4. Certain animal sera contain a partially heat-labile factor which, in low dilution, inhibits the agglutination of chicken red cells by influenza A and influenza B viruses. 5. The agglutination inhibition test, using ferret and human sera, gives qualitative data regarding influenza antibodies which are similar to the information obtained on the same sera by means of the virus neutralization test. 6. There is a definite relationship between the agglutination inhibition titer and the virus neutralization titer of a serum. On a logarithmic scale of both variables, this relationship is essentially linear within the range investigated. 7. The agglutination inhibition titer of immune ferret serum is inversely proportional to the amount of virus used in the test.