Incidence and temporal trends in type 2 diabetes by weight status: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

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Abstract

Background

Diabetes is more prevalent among overweight/obese individuals, but has become a significant public health challenge among normal weight populations. In this meta-analysis, we aimed to estimate diabetes/prediabetes incidence and its temporal trends by weight status.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched until 8 December 2021. Prospective cohort studies reporting diabetes incidence by baseline body mass index (BMI) categories in adults were included. The median year of data collection was used to assess the temporal trends. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were also performed.

Results

We included 94 studies involving 3.4 million adults from 22 countries. The pooled diabetes incidence in underweight, normal-weight, and overweight/obese adults was 4.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.8-7.3), 2.7 (95% CI = 2.2-3.3), and 10.5 (95% CI = 9.3-11.8) per 1000 person-years, respectively. The diabetes incidence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was higher than in high-income countries among normal-weight (5.8 vs 2.0 per 1000 person-years) or overweight/obese (15.9 vs 8.9 per 1000 person-years) adults. European and American regions had a higher diabetes incidence than the non-Western areas, regardless of weight status. Underweight diabetes incidence decreased significantly from 1995-2000 to 2005-2010. Diabetes incidence in normal-weight populations has increased continuously since 1985 by an estimated 36% every five years. In overweight/obese adults, diabetes incidence increased between 1985-1990 and 1995-2000, stabilised between 2000 and 2010, and spiked suddenly after 2010.

Conclusions

Diabetes incidence and its temporal trends differed by weight status. The continuous upward trend of diabetes incidence among overweight/obese individuals requires urgent attention, particularly in LMICs. Furthermore, diabetes among normal-weight individuals is becoming a significant public health problem.

Registration

PROSPERO (CRD42020215957).

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The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews

Matthew J L Page, Joanne E McKenzie, Patrick Bossuyt … (2027)

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, published in 2009, was designed to help systematic reviewers transparently report why the review was done, what the authors did, and what they found. Over the past decade, advances in systematic review methodology and terminology have necessitated an update to the guideline. The PRISMA 2020 statement replaces the 2009 statement and includes new reporting guidance that reflects advances in methods to identify, select, appraise, and synthesise studies. The structure and presentation of the items have been modified to facilitate implementation. In this article, we present the PRISMA 2020 27-item checklist, an expanded checklist that details reporting recommendations for each item, the PRISMA 2020 abstract checklist, and the revised flow diagrams for original and updated reviews.

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Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

Leandra Abarca-Gómez, Ziad A Abdeen, Zargar Abdul Hamid … (2019)

Summary Background Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Findings Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24–89) million girls and 74 (39–125) million boys worldwide were obese. Interpretation The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. Funding Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

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Appropriate body-mass index for Asian populations and its implications for policy and intervention strategies.

(2004)

A WHO expert consultation addressed the debate about interpretation of recommended body-mass index (BMI) cut-off points for determining overweight and obesity in Asian populations, and considered whether population-specific cut-off points for BMI are necessary. They reviewed scientific evidence that suggests that Asian populations have different associations between BMI, percentage of body fat, and health risks than do European populations. The consultation concluded that the proportion of Asian people with a high risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease is substantial at BMIs lower than the existing WHO cut-off point for overweight (> or =25 kg/m2). However, available data do not necessarily indicate a clear BMI cut-off point for all Asians for overweight or obesity. The cut-off point for observed risk varies from 22 kg/m2 to 25 kg/m2 in different Asian populations; for high risk it varies from 26 kg/m2 to 31 kg/m2. No attempt was made, therefore, to redefine cut-off points for each population separately. The consultation also agreed that the WHO BMI cut-off points should be retained as international classifications. The consultation identified further potential public health action points (23.0, 27.5, 32.5, and 37.5 kg/m2) along the continuum of BMI, and proposed methods by which countries could make decisions about the definitions of increased risk for their population.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Glob Health

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J Glob Health

Journal ID (publisher-id): JGH

Title: Journal of Global Health

Publisher: International Society of Global Health

ISSN (Print): 2047-2978

ISSN (Electronic): 2047-2986

Publication date (Electronic, pub): 1 September 2023

Publication date (Electronic, collection): 2023

Volume: 13

Electronic Location Identifier: 04088

Affiliations

[1 ]School of Nursing, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

[2 ]National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The Third People’s Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China

Author notes

Correspondence to: Mandy Ho School of Nursing, University of Hong Kong 5/F 3 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong China  mandyho1@ 123456hku.hk .

Author information

Hong-jie Yu https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-4479

Mandy Ho https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4460-7969

Pui Hing Chau https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0287-8020

Daniel Yee Tak Fong https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7365-9146

Article

Publisher ID: jogh-13-04088

DOI: 10.7189/jogh.13.04088

PMC ID: 10471153

PubMed ID: 37651631

SO-VID: a033a9fa-30ba-4374-b8cb-e63f42981769

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Figures: 2, Tables: 2, Equations: 0, References: 138, Pages: 15

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Incidence and temporal trends in type 2 diabetes by weight status: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

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Global Health Next Generation Network

Most cited references 134

The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

Appropriate body-mass index for Asian populations and its implications for policy and intervention strategies.

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