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      Do north-eastern German pharmacies recommend a necessary medical consultation for acute diarrhoea? Magnitude and determinants using a simulated patient approach

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          Abstract

          Background: In Germany, non-pharmacists (pharmacy technicians and pharmaceutical technical assistants) are permitted to advise on and sell medications in addition to pharmacists. The aim of this study was to determine if pharmacists and non-pharmacists referred patients to a medical consultation for a scenario in which consulting a doctor was mandatory (‘appropriate outcome’) and what the quality of questioning and – if a medication was dispensed – the quality of information provided were in this context. The study also aimed to determine which factors predicted a necessary referral to a doctor.

          Methods: A cross-sectional, covert simulated patient study was conducted in a random sample of community pharmacies stratified by location in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Each pharmacy was visited once by one of four trained investigators. They simulated a symptom-based request involving a grandmother with acute diarrhoea. A multivariate binary logistic regression analysis using potential variables from bivariate analysis was carried out to determine the predictors for a referral to a doctor.

          Results: All 199 planned visits were conducted. A necessary referral to a doctor was recommended in 59.8% (n=119) of all visits. The most commonly asked question was ‘for whom is the medication?’ (75.4%, n=150), while ‘clarification by a doctor’ was asked the least (17.6%, n=35). In 87.9% (n=175) of all visits a medication was dispensed. Multivariate analysis revealed that, unlike pharmacists, non-pharmacists have a 2.446 times higher likelihood of recommending a referral to a doctor (p = 0.044; 95% CI = 1.025–5.835).

          Conclusions: In almost half of the visits a necessary referral to a doctor was not recommended. Furthermore, the quality of questioning and the quality of information were below expectations. Moreover, involvement of non‑pharmacists was surprisingly identified as a relevant factor influencing the appropriate outcome.

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          Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

          Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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            Applied Logistic Regression

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              A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis.

              We performed a Monte Carlo study to evaluate the effect of the number of events per variable (EPV) analyzed in logistic regression analysis. The simulations were based on data from a cardiac trial of 673 patients in which 252 deaths occurred and seven variables were cogent predictors of mortality; the number of events per predictive variable was (252/7 =) 36 for the full sample. For the simulations, at values of EPV = 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25, we randomly generated 500 samples of the 673 patients, chosen with replacement, according to a logistic model derived from the full sample. Simulation results for the regression coefficients for each variable in each group of 500 samples were compared for bias, precision, and significance testing against the results of the model fitted to the original sample. For EPV values of 10 or greater, no major problems occurred. For EPV values less than 10, however, the regression coefficients were biased in both positive and negative directions; the large sample variance estimates from the logistic model both overestimated and underestimated the sample variance of the regression coefficients; the 90% confidence limits about the estimated values did not have proper coverage; the Wald statistic was conservative under the null hypothesis; and paradoxical associations (significance in the wrong direction) were increased. Although other factors (such as the total number of events, or sample size) may influence the validity of the logistic model, our findings indicate that low EPV can lead to major problems.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data CurationRole: Formal AnalysisRole: MethodologyRole: Project AdministrationRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – Original Draft Preparation
                Role: Writing – Review & Editing
                Journal
                F1000Res
                F1000Res
                F1000Research
                F1000Research
                F1000 Research Limited (London, UK )
                2046-1402
                7 May 2020
                2019
                : 8
                : 1841
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Health, Nursing, Management, University of Applied Sciences Neubrandenburg, Neubrandenburg, Germany
                [1 ]Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates
                [1 ]Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Practice, College of Pharmacy, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
                [1 ]Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates
                University of Applied Sciences Neubrandenburg, Germany
                [1 ]Department of Pharmacy Practice and Pharmacotherapeutics, College of Pharmacy, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
                University of Applied Sciences Neubrandenburg, Germany
                [1 ]Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Practice, College of Pharmacy, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
                University of Applied Sciences Neubrandenburg, Germany
                Author notes

                No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8410-5229
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2674-0344
                Article
                10.12688/f1000research.21045.2
                7014574
                32089826
                9d14825a-1bcf-4181-a464-9f59f02be8ac
                Copyright: © 2020 Langer B and Kunow C

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 27 April 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
                Award ID: 414051096
                We acknowledge support for the Article Processing Charge from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation, 414051096) and the Open Access Publication Fund of the Hochschule Neubrandenburg (Neubrandenburg University of Applied Sciences).
                Categories
                Research Article
                Articles

                non-prescription drugs,community pharmacies,consultation,patient simulation,diarrhoea,germany

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