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      A Quantile-Based g-Computation Approach to Addressing the Effects of Exposure Mixtures

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          Abstract

          Background:

          Exposure mixtures frequently occur in data across many domains, particularly in the fields of environmental and nutritional epidemiology. Various strategies have arisen to answer questions about exposure mixtures, including methods such as weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression that estimate a joint effect of the mixture components.

          Objectives:

          We demonstrate a new approach to estimating the joint effects of a mixture: quantile g-computation. This approach combines the inferential simplicity of WQS regression with the flexibility of g-computation, a method of causal effect estimation. We use simulations to examine whether quantile g-computation and WQS regression can accurately and precisely estimate the effects of mixtures in a variety of common scenarios.

          Methods:

          We examine the bias, confidence interval (CI) coverage, and bias–variance tradeoff of quantile g-computation and WQS regression and how these quantities are impacted by the presence of noncausal exposures, exposure correlation, unmeasured confounding, and nonlinearity of exposure effects.

          Results:

          Quantile g-computation, unlike WQS regression, allows inference on mixture effects that is unbiased with appropriate CI coverage at sample sizes typically encountered in epidemiologic studies and when the assumptions of WQS regression are not met. Further, WQS regression can magnify bias from unmeasured confounding that might occur if important components of the mixture are omitted from the analysis.

          Discussion:

          Unlike inferential approaches that examine the effects of individual exposures while holding other exposures constant, methods like quantile g-computation that can estimate the effect of a mixture are essential for understanding the effects of potential public health actions that act on exposure sources. Our approach may serve to help bridge gaps between epidemiologic analysis and interventions such as regulations on industrial emissions or mining processes, dietary changes, or consumer behavioral changes that act on multiple exposures simultaneously. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5838

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          Most cited references41

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          Marginal Structural Models and Causal Inference in Epidemiology

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            Constructing inverse probability weights for marginal structural models.

            The method of inverse probability weighting (henceforth, weighting) can be used to adjust for measured confounding and selection bias under the four assumptions of consistency, exchangeability, positivity, and no misspecification of the model used to estimate weights. In recent years, several published estimates of the effect of time-varying exposures have been based on weighted estimation of the parameters of marginal structural models because, unlike standard statistical methods, weighting can appropriately adjust for measured time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure. As an example, the authors describe the last three assumptions using the change in viral load due to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among 918 human immunodeficiency virus-infected US men and women followed for a median of 5.8 years between 1996 and 2005. The authors describe possible tradeoffs that an epidemiologist may encounter when attempting to make inferences. For instance, a tradeoff between bias and precision is illustrated as a function of the extent to which confounding is controlled. Weight truncation is presented as an informal and easily implemented method to deal with these tradeoffs. Inverse probability weighting provides a powerful methodological tool that may uncover causal effects of exposures that are otherwise obscured. However, as with all methods, diagnostics and sensitivity analyses are essential for proper use.
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              Characterization of Weighted Quantile Sum Regression for Highly Correlated Data in a Risk Analysis Setting

              In risk evaluation, the effect of mixtures of environmental chemicals on a common adverse outcome is of interest. However, due to the high dimensionality and inherent correlations among chemicals that occur together, the traditional methods (e.g. ordinary or logistic regression) suffer from collinearity and variance inflation, and shrinkage methods have limitations in selecting among correlated components. We propose a weighted quantile sum (WQS) approach to estimating a body burden index, which identifies "bad actors" in a set of highly correlated environmental chemicals. We evaluate and characterize the accuracy of WQS regression in variable selection through extensive simulation studies through sensitivity and specificity (i.e., ability of the WQS method to select the bad actors correctly and not incorrect ones). We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy this method provides over traditional ordinary regression and shrinkage methods (lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net). Results from simulations demonstrate that WQS regression is accurate under some environmentally relevant conditions, but its accuracy decreases for a fixed correlation pattern as the association with a response variable diminishes. Nonzero weights (i.e., weights exceeding a selection threshold parameter) may be used to identify bad actors; however, components within a cluster of highly correlated active components tend to have lower weights, with the sum of their weights representative of the set.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Environ Health Perspect
                Environ. Health Perspect
                EHP
                Environmental Health Perspectives
                Environmental Health Perspectives
                0091-6765
                1552-9924
                7 April 2020
                April 2020
                : 128
                : 4
                : 047004
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ]Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
                [ 2 ]Epidemiology Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services , Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
                [ 3 ]Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                [ 4 ]Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, Maryland, USA
                [ 5 ]Biostatistics Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services , Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to A.P. Keil, Department of Epidemiology, CB 7435, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7435. Telephone: 919-966-6652. Fax: 919-966-2089. Email: akeil@ 123456unc.edu
                Article
                EHP5838
                10.1289/EHP5838
                7228100
                32255670
                97a44b85-8ab6-4cc4-90f1-d178e1b25799

                EHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted.

                History
                : 01 July 2019
                : 28 February 2020
                : 24 March 2020
                Categories
                Research

                Public health
                Public health

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