Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia

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Abstract

Background

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) quickly controlled the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by implementing several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including suspension of international and national travel, local curfews, closing public spaces (i.e., schools and universities, malls and shops), and limiting religious gatherings. The KSA also mandated all citizens to respect physical distancing and to wear face masks. However, after relaxing some restrictions during June 2020, the KSA is now planning a strategy that could allow resuming in-person education and international travel. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of NPIs on the spread of the COVID-19 and test strategies to open schools and resume international travel.

Methods

We built a spatial-explicit individual-based model to represent the whole KSA population (IBM-KSA). The IBM-KSA was parameterized using country demographic, remote sensing, and epidemiological data. A social network was created to represent contact heterogeneity and interaction among age groups of the population. The IBM-KSA also simulated the movement of people across the country based on a gravity model. We used the IBM-KSA to evaluate the effect of different NPIs adopted by the KSA (physical distancing, mask-wearing, and contact tracing) and to forecast the impact of strategies to open schools and resume international travels.

Results

The IBM-KSA results scenarios showed the high effectiveness of mask-wearing, physical distancing, and contact tracing in controlling the spread of the disease. Without NPIs, the KSA could have reported 4,824,065 (95% CI: 3,673,775–6,335,423) cases by June 2021. The IBM-KSA showed that mandatory mask-wearing and physical distancing saved 39,452 lives (95% CI: 26,641–44,494). In-person education without personal protection during teaching would have resulted in a high surge of COVID-19 cases. Compared to scenarios with no personal protection, enforcing mask-wearing and physical distancing in schools reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 25% and 50%, when adherence to these NPIs was set to 50% and 70%, respectively. The IBM-KSA also showed that a quarantine imposed on international travelers reduced the probability of outbreaks in the country.

Conclusions

This study showed that the interventions adopted by the KSA were able to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the absence of a vaccine. In-person education should be resumed only if NPIs could be applied in schools and universities. International travel can be resumed but with strict quarantine rules. The KSA needs to keep strict NPIs in place until a high fraction of the population is vaccinated in order to reduce hospitalizations and deaths.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02232-4.

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Most cited references 66

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Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

Wei-jie Guan, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu … (2020)

Abstract Background Since December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of the affected patients. Methods We extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Results The median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died. Only 1.9% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife. Among nonresidents of Wuhan, 72.3% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 31.3% who had visited the city. The most common symptoms were fever (43.8% on admission and 88.7% during hospitalization) and cough (67.8%). Diarrhea was uncommon (3.8%). The median incubation period was 4 days (interquartile range, 2 to 7). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the most common radiologic finding on chest computed tomography (CT) (56.4%). No radiographic or CT abnormality was found in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with nonsevere disease and in 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease. Lymphocytopenia was present in 83.2% of the patients on admission. Conclusions During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness. Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. (Funded by the National Health Commission of China and others.)

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Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Derek K. Chu, Elie A. Akl, Stephanie Duda … (2020)

Summary Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 and is spread person-to-person through close contact. We aimed to investigate the effects of physical distance, face masks, and eye protection on virus transmission in health-care and non-health-care (eg, community) settings. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the optimum distance for avoiding person-to-person virus transmission and to assess the use of face masks and eye protection to prevent transmission of viruses. We obtained data for SARS-CoV-2 and the betacoronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome, and Middle East respiratory syndrome from 21 standard WHO-specific and COVID-19-specific sources. We searched these data sources from database inception to May 3, 2020, with no restriction by language, for comparative studies and for contextual factors of acceptability, feasibility, resource use, and equity. We screened records, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in duplicate. We did frequentist and Bayesian meta-analyses and random-effects meta-regressions. We rated the certainty of evidence according to Cochrane methods and the GRADE approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020177047. Findings Our search identified 172 observational studies across 16 countries and six continents, with no randomised controlled trials and 44 relevant comparative studies in health-care and non-health-care settings (n=25 697 patients). Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1 m or more, compared with a distance of less than 1 m (n=10 736, pooled adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·18, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·38; risk difference [RD] −10·2%, 95% CI −11·5 to −7·5; moderate certainty); protection was increased as distance was lengthened (change in relative risk [RR] 2·02 per m; p interaction=0·041; moderate certainty). Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD −14·3%, −15·9 to −10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks; p interaction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty). Eye protection also was associated with less infection (n=3713; aOR 0·22, 95% CI 0·12 to 0·39, RD −10·6%, 95% CI −12·5 to −7·7; low certainty). Unadjusted studies and subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed similar findings. Interpretation The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis support physical distancing of 1 m or more and provide quantitative estimates for models and contact tracing to inform policy. Optimum use of face masks, respirators, and eye protection in public and health-care settings should be informed by these findings and contextual factors. Robust randomised trials are needed to better inform the evidence for these interventions, but this systematic appraisal of currently best available evidence might inform interim guidance. Funding World Health Organization.

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Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

Nils Haug, Lukas Geyrhofer, Alessandro Londei … (2021)

Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific 'what-if' scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Donal Bisanzio:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7832-2291

dbisanzio@rti.org

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Med

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Med

Title: BMC Medicine

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1741-7015

Publication date (Electronic): 7 February 2022

Publication date PMC-release: 7 February 2022

Publication date Collection: 2022

Volume: 20

Electronic Location Identifier: 51

Affiliations

[1 ]GRID grid.62562.35, ISNI 0000000100301493, RTI International, ; Washington, D.C., USA

[2 ]GRID grid.4563.4, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8868, Epidemiology and Public Health Division, School of Medicine, , University of Nottingham, ; Nottingham, UK

[3 ]Saudi Public Health Authority, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[4 ]GRID grid.415696.9, ISNI 0000 0004 0573 9824, Ministry of Health, ; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[5 ]GRID grid.56302.32, ISNI 0000 0004 1773 5396, College of Applied Medical Sciences, , King Saud University, ; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

[6 ]GRID grid.431778.e, ISNI 0000 0004 0482 9086, World Bank, ; Washington, D.C., USA

Author information

Donal Bisanzio http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7832-2291

Article

Publisher ID: 2232

DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02232-4

PMC ID: 8818364

PubMed ID: 35125108

SO-VID: 95f9211b-cab1-46d6-9f59-a89627373e2c

License:

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

History

Date received : 21 June 2021

Date accepted : 3 January 2022

Funding

Funded by: saudi public health authority, and the saudi ministry of finance

Award ID: P172148

Award Recipient : Christopher H. Herbst

Custom metadata

ScienceOpen disciplines: Medicine

Keywords: sars-cov-2,covid-19,non-pharmaceutical interventions,individual-based model,saudi arabia

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Medicine

Keywords: sars-cov-2, covid-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions, individual-based model, saudi arabia

Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia

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Abstract

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Novel Coronavirus Disease COVID-19

Most cited references 66

Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

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