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      An SEIR model of influenza A virus infection and reinfection within a farrow-to-finish swine farm

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      Author(s): 1 , * , 1 , 2
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      Journal: PLoS ONE
      Publisher: Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          Influenza A virus (IAV) in swine is a pathogen that causes a threat to the health as well as to the production of swine. Moreover, swine can spread this virus to other species including humans. The virus persists in different types of swine farms as evident in a number of studies. The core objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the dynamics of influenza infection of a farrow-to-finish swine farm, (ii) to explore the reinfection at the farm level, and finally (iii) to examine the effectiveness of two control strategies: vaccination and reduction of indirect contact. The analyses are conducted using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Simulation results show that the disease is maintained in gilts and piglets because of new susceptible pigs entering the population on a weekly basis. A sensitivity analysis shows that the results are not sensitive to variation in the parameters. The results of the reinfection simulation indicate that the virus persists in the entire farm. The control strategies studied in this work are not successful in eliminating the virus within the farm.

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          Agricultural intensification, priming for persistence and the emergence of Nipah virus: a lethal bat-borne zoonosis

          Juliet Pulliam, Jonathan H. Epstein, Jonathan Dushoff … (2011)
          Emerging zoonoses threaten global health, yet the processes by which they emerge are complex and poorly understood. Nipah virus (NiV) is an important threat owing to its broad host and geographical range, high case fatality, potential for human-to-human transmission and lack of effective prevention or therapies. Here, we investigate the origin of the first identified outbreak of NiV encephalitis in Malaysia and Singapore. We analyse data on livestock production from the index site (a commercial pig farm in Malaysia) prior to and during the outbreak, on Malaysian agricultural production, and from surveys of NiV's wildlife reservoir (flying foxes). Our analyses suggest that repeated introduction of NiV from wildlife changed infection dynamics in pigs. Initial viral introduction produced an explosive epizootic that drove itself to extinction but primed the population for enzootic persistence upon reintroduction of the virus. The resultant within-farm persistence permitted regional spread and increased the number of human infections. This study refutes an earlier hypothesis that anomalous El Niño Southern Oscillation-related climatic conditions drove emergence and suggests that priming for persistence drove the emergence of a novel zoonotic pathogen. Thus, we provide empirical evidence for a causative mechanism previously proposed as a precursor to widespread infection with H5N1 avian influenza and other emerging pathogens.
          Article 0 comments Cited 150 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            The emergence of novel swine influenza viruses in North America.

            Christopher W. Olsen (2002)
            Since 1997, novel viruses of three different subtypes and five different genotypes have emerged as agents of influenza among pigs in North America. The appearance of these viruses is remarkable because there were no substantial changes in the overall epidemiology of swine influenza in the United States and Canada for over 60 years prior to this time. Viruses of the classical H1N1 lineage were virtually the exclusive cause of swine influenza from the time of their initial isolation in 1930 through 1998. Antigenic drift variants of these H1N1 viruses were isolated in 1991-1998, but a much more dramatic antigenic shift occurred with the emergence of H3N2 viruses in 1997-1998. In particular, H3N2 viruses with genes derived from human, swine and avian viruses have become a major cause of swine influenza in North America. In addition, H1N2 viruses that resulted from reassortment between the triple reassortant H3N2 viruses and classical H1N1 swine viruses have been isolated subsequently from pigs in at least six states. Finally, avian H4N6 viruses crossed the species barrier to infect pigs in Canada in 1999. Fortunately, these H4N6 viruses have not been isolated beyond their initial farm of origin. If these viruses spread more widely, they will represent another antigenic shift for our swine population, and could pose a threat to the world's human population. Research on these novel viruses may offer important clues to the genetic basis for interspecies transmission of influenza viruses.
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              Transmission of influenza A virus in pigs.

              M Allerson, Bettina M. Gramer, M. A. Diaz … (2012)
              Influenza A virus infections cause respiratory disease in pigs and are a risk to public health. The pig plays an important role in influenza ecology because of its ability to support replication of influenza viruses from avian, swine and human species. Influenza A virus is widespread in pigs worldwide, and influenza A virus interspecies transmission has been documented in many events. Influenza A virus is mostly transmitted through direct pig-to-pig contact and aerosols although other indirect routes of transmission may also exist. Several factors contribute to differences in the transmission dynamics within populations including among others vaccination, pig flow, animal movement and animal introduction which highlights the complexity of influenza A transmission in pigs. In addition, pigs can serve as a reservoir of influenza A viruses for other pigs and other species and understanding mechanisms of transmission within pigs and from pigs to other species and vice versa is crucial. In this paper, we review the current understanding of influenza virus transmission in pigs. We highlight the ubiquity of influenza A virus in the pig population and the widespread distribution of pandemic H1N1 virus worldwide while emphasizing an understanding of the routes of transmission and factors that contribute to virus spread and dissemination within and between pig populations. In addition, we describe transmission events between pigs and other species including people. Understanding transmission is crucial for designing effective control strategies and for making well-informed recommendations for surveillance. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Fatima Etbaigha:
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5044-074X
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Allan R. Willms: Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Zvonimir Poljak: Role: ConceptualizationRole: ResourcesRole: ValidationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Montserrat Torremorell: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS ONE
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Journal ID (pmc): plosone
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date Collection: 2018
                Publication date (Electronic): 24 September 2018
                Volume: 13
                Issue: 9
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0202493
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1 Canada
                [2 ] Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1 Canada
                University of Minnesota, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5044-074X
                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-17-35388
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202493
                PMC ID: 6152865
                PubMed ID: 30248106
                SO-VID: 8b6a924c-8ac3-4426-adcc-0dec35077441
                Copyright © © 2018 Etbaigha et al
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 30 September 2017
                Date accepted : 3 August 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 8, Tables: 2, Pages: 19
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010450, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research;
                Award Recipient :
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5044-074X
                This work was supported by Ministry of Higher Education and scientific research, Libya.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Organisms
                Subject: Eukaryota
                Subject: Animals
                Subject: Vertebrates
                Subject: Amniotes
                Subject: Mammals
                Subject: Swine
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Immunology
                Subject: Immunity
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Immunology
                Subject: Immunity
                Subject: Biology and life sciences
                Subject: Organisms
                Subject: Viruses
                Subject: RNA viruses
                Subject: Orthomyxoviruses
                Subject: Influenza viruses
                Subject: Influenza A virus
                Subject: Biology and life sciences
                Subject: Microbiology
                Subject: Medical microbiology
                Subject: Microbial pathogens
                Subject: Viral pathogens
                Subject: Orthomyxoviruses
                Subject: Influenza viruses
                Subject: Influenza A virus
                Subject: Medicine and health sciences
                Subject: Pathology and laboratory medicine
                Subject: Pathogens
                Subject: Microbial pathogens
                Subject: Viral pathogens
                Subject: Orthomyxoviruses
                Subject: Influenza viruses
                Subject: Influenza A virus
                Subject: Biology and life sciences
                Subject: Organisms
                Subject: Viruses
                Subject: Viral pathogens
                Subject: Orthomyxoviruses
                Subject: Influenza viruses
                Subject: Influenza A virus
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Immunology
                Subject: Vaccination and Immunization
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Immunology
                Subject: Vaccination and Immunization
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Public and Occupational Health
                Subject: Preventive Medicine
                Subject: Vaccination and Immunization
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Agriculture
                Subject: Livestock
                Subject: Research and Analysis Methods
                Subject: Experimental Organism Systems
                Subject: Animal Models
                Subject: Pig Models
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Infectious Diseases
                Subject: Infectious Disease Control
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Infectious Diseases
                Subject: Viral Diseases
                Subject: Influenza
                Custom metadata
                Data Availability All model equations and parameters required to reproduce the work are included within the manuscript.

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