Multivariate analysis of multimodal brain structure predicts individual differences in risk and intertemporal preference

Abstract

Large changes to brain structure (e.g., from damage or disease) can explain alterations in behavior. It is therefore plausible that smaller structural differences in healthy samples can be used to better understand and predict individual differences in behavior. Despite the brain’s multivariate and distributed structure-to-function mapping, most studies have used univariate analyses of individual structural brain measures. Here we used a multivariate approach in a multimodal data set composed of volumetric, surface-based, diffusion-based, and functional resting-state MRI measures to predict reliable individual differences in risk and intertemporal preferences. We show that combining twelve brain structure measures led to better predictions across tasks than using any individual measure, and by examining model coefficients, we visualize the relative contribution of different brain measures from different brain regions. Using a multivariate approach to brain structure-to-function mapping that combines across many brain structure properties, along with reliably measured behavior phenotypes, may increase out-of-sample prediction accuracies and insight into neural underpinnings. Furthermore, this methodological approach may be useful to improve predictions and neural insight across basic, translational, and clinical research fields.