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      Future Scenarios of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco

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          Abstract

          Modeling of land use and land cover (LULC) is a very important tool, particularly in the agricultural field: it allows us to know the potential changes in land area in the future and to consider developments in order to prevent probable risks. The idea is to give a representation of probable future situations based on certain assumptions. The objective of this study is to make future predictions in land use and land cover in the watershed “9 April 1947”, and in the years 2028, 2038 and 2050. Then, the maps obtained with the climate predictions will be integrated into an agro-hydrological model to know the water yield, the sediment yield and the water balance of the studied area by 2050.The future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios were created using a CA-Markov forecasting model. The results of the simulation of the LULC changes were considered satisfactory, as shown by the values obtained from the kappa indices for agreement (κstandard) = 0.73, kappa for lack of information (κno) = 0.76, and kappa for location at grid cell level (κlocation) = 0.80. Future scenarios modeled in LULC indicate a decrease in agricultural areas and wetlands, both of which can be seen as a warning of crop loss. There is, on the other hand, an increase in forest areas that could be an advantage for the biodiversity of the fauna and flora in the “9 April 1947” watershed.

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          The Measurement of Observer Agreement for Categorical Data

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            A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects

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              Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion

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                Author and article information

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                Journal
                Remote Sensing
                Remote Sensing
                MDPI AG
                2072-4292
                February 2023
                February 20 2023
                : 15
                : 4
                : 1162
                Article
                10.3390/rs15041162
                82e743ce-f9ef-4fba-98f8-cebea8b5b5c6
                © 2023

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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