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      A Conceptual and Adaptable Approach to Hospital Preparedness for Acute Surge Events Due to Emerging Infectious Diseases

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      , MD, MSCE, MBE 1 , 2 , , , MD, MS 3 , , MD, MSc 3
      Critical Care Explorations
      Wolters Kluwer Health
      capacity strain, coronavirus disease 2019, pandemics, preparedness and response

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          Abstract

          At the time this article was written, the World Health Organization had declared a global pandemic due to the novel coronavirus disease 2019, the first pandemic since 2009 H1N1 influenza A. Emerging respiratory pathogens are a common trigger of acute surge events—the extreme end of the healthcare capacity strain spectrum in which there is a dramatic increase in care demands and/or decreases in care resources that trigger deviations from normal care delivery processes, reliance on contingencies and external resources, and, in the most extreme cases, nonroutine decisions about resource allocation. This article provides as follows: 1) a conceptual introduction and approach to healthcare capacity strain including the etiologies of patient volume, patient acuity, special patient care demands, and resource reduction; 2) a framework for considering key resources during an acute surge event—the “four Ss” of preparedness: space (beds), staff (clinicians and operations), stuff (physical equipment), and system (coordination); and 3) an adaptable approach to and discussion of the most common domains that should be addressed during preparation for and response to acute surge events, with an eye toward combating novel respiratory viral pathogens.

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          Coronavirus Infections—More Than Just the Common Cold

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            ICU capacity strain and the quality and allocation of critical care.

            Increasing demand for critical care, with limited potential for comparable expansion of supply, may strain the abilities of ICUs to provide high-quality care in an equitable fashion. Efforts to counter the untoward consequences for the quality and ethics of critical care delivery are limited by the absence of a specific and validated metric of ICU capacity strain. This manuscript presents a conceptual framework for ICU capacity strain, considers what data elements may contribute to it, and suggests methods for determining the optimal metric. Next, it outlines the range of potential consequences of increased capacity strain, in terms of both the quality and ethics of care delivered. Finally, consideration is given to how untoward consequences of ICU capacity strain might be mitigated through better understanding of what makes some ICUs better able than others to withstand temporal fluctuations in the demand for their services. Development of an appropriately accurate and parsimonious measure of ICU capacity strain may augment the precision of future critical care outcomes research by reducing unexplained variance attributable to temporal fluctuations in ICU-level factors; elucidate organizational characteristics that make some ICUs better able to withstand high-capacity strain without substantive degradations in quality; and enhance the transparency of critical care rationing while helping to improve its equity and efficiency, thereby promoting the ethics of this inevitable practice.
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              Associations of Intensive Care Unit Capacity Strain with Disposition and Outcomes of Patients with Sepsis Presenting to the Emergency Department

              Rationale: Intensive care unit (ICU) capacity strain refers to the potential limits placed on an ICU’s ability to provide high-quality care for all patients who may need it at a given time. Few studies have investigated how fluctuations in ICU capacity strain might influence care outside the ICU. Objectives: To determine whether ICU capacity strain is associated with initial level of inpatient care and outcomes for emergency department (ED) patients hospitalized for sepsis. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with sepsis admitted from the ED to a medical ward or ICU at three hospitals within the University of Pennsylvania Health System between 2012 and 2015. Patients were excluded if they required life support therapies, defined as invasive or noninvasive ventilatory support or vasopressors, at the time of admission. The exposures were four measures of ICU capacity strain at the time of the ED disposition decision: ICU occupancy, ICU turnover, ICU census acuity, and ward occupancy. The primary outcome was the decision to admit to a ward or to an ICU. Secondary analyses assessed the association of ICU capacity strain with in-hospital outcomes, including mortality. Results: Among 77,142 hospital admissions from the ED, 3,067 patients met the study’s eligibility criteria. The ICU capacity strain metrics varied between and within study hospitals over time. In unadjusted analyses, ICU occupancy, ICU turnover, ICU census acuity, and ward occupancy were all negatively associated with ICU admission. In the fully adjusted model including patient-level covariates, only ICU occupancy remained associated with ICU admission (odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.96; P  = 0.005), such that a 10% increase in ICU occupancy (e.g., one additional patient in a 10-bed ICU) was associated with a 13% decrease in the odds of ICU admission. Among the subset of patients admitted initially from the ED to a medical ward, ICU occupancy at the time of admission was associated with increased odds of hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.21–2.14; P  = 0.001). Conclusions: The odds that patients in the ED with sepsis who do not require life support therapies will be admitted to the ICU are reduced when those ICUs experience high occupancy but not high levels of other previously explored measures of capacity strain. Patients with sepsis admitted to the wards during times of high ICU occupancy had increased odds of hospital mortality.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Crit Care Explor
                Crit Care Explor
                CC9
                Critical Care Explorations
                Wolters Kluwer Health
                2639-8028
                April 2020
                29 April 2020
                : 2
                : 4
                : e0110
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA.
                [2 ]Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA.
                [3 ]Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Washington Medical Center, Seattle, WA.
                Author notes
                For information regarding this article, E-mail: george.anesi@ 123456uphs.upenn.edu
                Article
                00014
                10.1097/CCE.0000000000000110
                7188427
                32426752
                6e747680-6b19-4d68-a97d-acc6ff7a4dbe
                Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Society of Critical Care Medicine.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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