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      A practical guide to molecular dating

      Comptes Rendus Palevol
      Elsevier BV

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          TimeTree: a public knowledge-base of divergence times among organisms.

          Biologists and other scientists routinely need to know times of divergence between species and to construct phylogenies calibrated to time (timetrees). Published studies reporting time estimates from molecular data have been increasing rapidly, but the data have been largely inaccessible to the greater community of scientists because of their complexity. TimeTree brings these data together in a consistent format and uses a hierarchical structure, corresponding to the tree of life, to maximize their utility. Results are presented and summarized, allowing users to quickly determine the range and robustness of time estimates and the degree of consensus from the published literature. TimeTree is available at http://www.timetree.net
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            A Total-Evidence Approach to Dating with Fossils, Applied to the Early Radiation of the Hymenoptera

            Phylogenies are usually dated by calibrating interior nodes against the fossil record. This relies on indirect methods that, in the worst case, misrepresent the fossil information. Here, we contrast such node dating with an approach that includes fossils along with the extant taxa in a Bayesian total-evidence analysis. As a test case, we focus on the early radiation of the Hymenoptera, mostly documented by poorly preserved impression fossils that are difficult to place phylogenetically. Specifically, we compare node dating using nine calibration points derived from the fossil record with total-evidence dating based on 343 morphological characters scored for 45 fossil (4--20 complete) and 68 extant taxa. In both cases we use molecular data from seven markers (∼5 kb) for the extant taxa. Because it is difficult to model speciation, extinction, sampling, and fossil preservation realistically, we develop a simple uniform prior for clock trees with fossils, and we use relaxed clock models to accommodate rate variation across the tree. Despite considerable uncertainty in the placement of most fossils, we find that they contribute significantly to the estimation of divergence times in the total-evidence analysis. In particular, the posterior distributions on divergence times are less sensitive to prior assumptions and tend to be more precise than in node dating. The total-evidence analysis also shows that four of the seven Hymenoptera calibration points used in node dating are likely to be based on erroneous or doubtful assumptions about the fossil placement. With respect to the early radiation of Hymenoptera, our results suggest that the crown group dates back to the Carboniferous, ∼309 Ma (95% interval: 291--347 Ma), and diversified into major extant lineages much earlier than previously thought, well before the Triassic. [Bayesian inference; fossil dating; morphological evolution; relaxed clock; statistical phylogenetics.]
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              Estimating Absolute Rates of Molecular Evolution and Divergence Times: A Penalized Likelihood Approach

              Rates of molecular evolution vary widely between lineages, but quantification of how rates change has proven difficult. Recently proposed estimation procedures have mainly adopted highly parametric approaches that model rate evolution explicitly. In this study, a semiparametric smoothing method is developed using penalized likelihood. A saturated model in which every lineage has a separate rate is combined with a roughness penalty that discourages rates from varying too much across a phylogeny. A data-driven cross-validation criterion is then used to determine an optimal level of smoothing. This criterion is based on an estimate of the average prediction error associated with pruning lineages from the tree. The methods are applied to three data sets of six genes across a sample of land plants. Optimally smoothed estimates of absolute rates entailed 2- to 10-fold variation across lineages.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Comptes Rendus Palevol
                Comptes Rendus Palevol
                Elsevier BV
                16310683
                August 2013
                August 2013
                : 12
                : 6
                : 355-367
                Article
                10.1016/j.crpv.2013.07.003
                68dd72d8-0ae8-4c03-bcb6-5ea5621b4944
                © 2013
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