Changing perspectives in times of crisis. The impact of COVID-19 on territorial accessibility

Abstract

The link between transport and land use in urban areas has always been characterized by a slow evolution process. COVID-19 brought, suddenly and unexpectedly, severe changes to the trip structure within urban areas, as several restrictions were combined with individual health fears. This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the territory of Porto Greater Urban Area, in Portugal, measured under a structural accessibility approach. This was evaluated through a simulation model, combining different destination restrictions in three alternative scenarios during the pandemic and post-COVID, as well as the definition of four different personas, with distinct risk aversion to infections and telecommuting patterns. The results, presented as the spatial configuration of different mobility environments, foster a critical reflection on their implication for future transportation and land use policies.

This pandemic has shown that the territory behaves differently under a critical lockdown scenario, where active modes gain predominance to satisfy most travel needs, signalling a potential ability to enforce more sustainable mobility habits. Still, as the territorial configuration tends to the previous state of equilibrium as restrictions are lifted, particularly for non-telecommuters, the need for acting quickly is reinforced. While the growth of telecommuting can induce additional challenges to the management of urban mobility systems, most policy recommendations that were valid in the past will maintain its relevance, as non telecommuters will retain previous travel habits.