Early use of oral semaglutide in the UK: A cost-effectiveness analysis versus continuing metformin and SGLT-2 inhibitor therapy

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Abstract

Objectives

Many people with type 2 diabetes experience clinical inertia, remaining in poor glycaemic control on oral glucose-lowering medications rather than intensifying treatment with a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, despite an efficacious, orally administered option, oral semaglutide, being available. The present study evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of initiating oral semaglutide versus continuing metformin plus sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor therapy in the UK.

Design

Outcomes were projected over patients’ lifetimes using the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (V.9.0). Clinical data were taken from the oral semaglutide and placebo arms of the patient subgroup receiving metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor in PIONEER 4. Costs, expressed in 2021 Pounds sterling (GBP), were accounted from a healthcare payer perspective.

Interventions

Modelled patients received oral semaglutide immediately (in the first year of the analysis) or after a 2-year delay, after which all physiological parameters were brought to values observed in the immediate therapy arm. During the simulation, patients intensified with the addition of basal insulin and, subsequently, by switching to basal-bolus insulin.

Results

Immediate oral semaglutide therapy was associated with improvements in life expectancy of 0.17 (95% CIs 0.16 to 0.19) years, and quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.15 (0.14 to 0.16) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), versus a 2-year delay. Benefits were due to a reduced incidence of diabetes-related complications. Direct costs were estimated to be GBP 1423 (1349 to 1496) higher with immediate oral semaglutide therapy versus a 2-year delay, with higher treatment costs partially offset by cost savings from avoidance of diabetes-related complications. Immediate oral semaglutide therapy was therefore associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of GBP 9404 (8380 to 10 538) per QALY gained versus a 2-year delay.

Conclusions

Immediate oral semaglutide is likely to represent a cost-effective treatment in people with type 2 diabetes with inadequate glycaemic control on metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor in the UK.

Trial registration number

NCT02863419.

Related collections

Most cited references 48

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Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33)

(1998)

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10-year follow-up of intensive glucose control in type 2 diabetes.

Rury R Holman, Sanjoy K Paul, M Angelyn Bethel … (2008)

During the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who received intensive glucose therapy had a lower risk of microvascular complications than did those receiving conventional dietary therapy. We conducted post-trial monitoring to determine whether this improved glucose control persisted and whether such therapy had a long-term effect on macrovascular outcomes. Of 5102 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, 4209 were randomly assigned to receive either conventional therapy (dietary restriction) or intensive therapy (either sulfonylurea or insulin or, in overweight patients, metformin) for glucose control. In post-trial monitoring, 3277 patients were asked to attend annual UKPDS clinics for 5 years, but no attempts were made to maintain their previously assigned therapies. Annual questionnaires were used to follow patients who were unable to attend the clinics, and all patients in years 6 to 10 were assessed through questionnaires. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes from the UKPDS on an intention-to-treat basis, according to previous randomization categories. Between-group differences in glycated hemoglobin levels were lost after the first year. In the sulfonylurea-insulin group, relative reductions in risk persisted at 10 years for any diabetes-related end point (9%, P=0.04) and microvascular disease (24%, P=0.001), and risk reductions for myocardial infarction (15%, P=0.01) and death from any cause (13%, P=0.007) emerged over time, as more events occurred. In the metformin group, significant risk reductions persisted for any diabetes-related end point (21%, P=0.01), myocardial infarction (33%, P=0.005), and death from any cause (27%, P=0.002). Despite an early loss of glycemic differences, a continued reduction in microvascular risk and emergent risk reductions for myocardial infarction and death from any cause were observed during 10 years of post-trial follow-up. A continued benefit after metformin therapy was evident among overweight patients. (UKPDS 80; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN75451837.) 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society

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Intensive Blood Glucose Control and Vascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Laurent Billot (2008)

In patients with type 2 diabetes, the effects of intensive glucose control on vascular outcomes remain uncertain. We randomly assigned 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes to undergo either standard glucose control or intensive glucose control, defined as the use of gliclazide (modified release) plus other drugs as required to achieve a glycated hemoglobin value of 6.5% or less. Primary end points were composites of major macrovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke) and major microvascular events (new or worsening nephropathy or retinopathy), assessed both jointly and separately. After a median of 5 years of follow-up, the mean glycated hemoglobin level was lower in the intensive-control group (6.5%) than in the standard-control group (7.3%). Intensive control reduced the incidence of combined major macrovascular and microvascular events (18.1%, vs. 20.0% with standard control; hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.98; P=0.01), as well as that of major microvascular events (9.4% vs. 10.9%; hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.97; P=0.01), primarily because of a reduction in the incidence of nephropathy (4.1% vs. 5.2%; hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.93; P=0.006), with no significant effect on retinopathy (P=0.50). There were no significant effects of the type of glucose control on major macrovascular events (hazard ratio with intensive control, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.06; P=0.32), death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio with intensive control, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.04; P=0.12), or death from any cause (hazard ratio with intensive control, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P=0.28). Severe hypoglycemia, although uncommon, was more common in the intensive-control group (2.7%, vs. 1.5% in the standard-control group; hazard ratio, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.42 to 2.40; P<0.001). A strategy of intensive glucose control, involving gliclazide (modified release) and other drugs as required, that lowered the glycated hemoglobin value to 6.5% yielded a 10% relative reduction in the combined outcome of major macrovascular and microvascular events, primarily as a consequence of a 21% relative reduction in nephropathy. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00145925.) 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMJ Open

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMJ Open

Journal ID (hwp): bmjopen

Journal ID (publisher-id): bmjopen

Title: BMJ Open

Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )

ISSN (Electronic): 2044-6055

Publication date Collection: 2023

Publication date (Electronic): 29 September 2023

Volume: 13

Issue: 9

Electronic Location Identifier: e070473

Affiliations

[1 ]departmentExternal Affairs, Diabetes & CV , Novo Nordisk Denmark A/S , Copenhagen, Denmark

[2 ]departmentMarket Access , Ringgold_33451Novo Nordisk Ltd , Gatwick, UK

[3 ]Ringgold_216314Ossian Health Economics and Communications GmbH , Basel, Switzerland

[4 ]Ringgold_151375Swansea University Medical School , Swansea, UK

Author notes

[Correspondence to ] Samuel Joseph Paul Malkin; malkin@ 123456ossianconsulting.com

Author information

Samuel Joseph Paul Malkin http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1306-7784

Article

Publisher ID: bmjopen-2022-070473

DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070473

PMC ID: 10546165

PubMed ID: 37775297

SO-VID: 63e5ddb1-93a0-475f-80b7-a1020c372295

License:

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

History

Date received : 24 November 2022

Date accepted : 31 August 2023

Funding

Funded by: Novo Nordisk Denmark A/S;

Award ID: N/A

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Medicine

Keywords: health economics,diabetes & endocrinology,oral medicine

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Medicine

Keywords: health economics, diabetes & endocrinology, oral medicine

Early use of oral semaglutide in the UK: A cost-effectiveness analysis versus continuing metformin and SGLT-2 inhibitor therapy

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Abstract

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Point-of-Care Testing for Infectious Diseases Super Collection

Most cited references 48

Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33)

10-year follow-up of intensive glucose control in type 2 diabetes.

Intensive Blood Glucose Control and Vascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

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