Using GIS to create synthetic disease outbreaks

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Abstract

Background

The ability to detect disease outbreaks in their early stages is a key component of efficient disease control and prevention. With the increased availability of electronic health-care data and spatio-temporal analysis techniques, there is great potential to develop algorithms to enable more effective disease surveillance. However, to ensure that the algorithms are effective they need to be evaluated. The objective of this research was to develop a transparent user-friendly method to simulate spatial-temporal disease outbreak data for outbreak detection algorithm evaluation.

A state-transition model which simulates disease outbreaks in daily time steps using specified disease-specific parameters was developed to model the spread of infectious diseases transmitted by person-to-person contact. The software was developed using the MapBasic programming language for the MapInfo Professional geographic information system environment.

Results

The simulation model developed is a generalised and flexible model which utilises the underlying distribution of the population and incorporates patterns of disease spread that can be customised to represent a range of infectious diseases and geographic locations. This model provides a means to explore the ability of outbreak detection algorithms to detect a variety of events across a large number of stochastic replications where the influence of uncertainty can be controlled. The software also allows historical data which is free from known outbreaks to be combined with simulated outbreak data to produce files for algorithm performance assessment.

Conclusion

This simulation model provides a flexible method to generate data which may be useful for the evaluation and comparison of outbreak detection algorithm performance.

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Most cited references 26

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Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks.

Stephen Eubank, Hasan Guclu, V. Anil Kumar … (2004)

Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions or ad hoc models for the contact process. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.

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Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.

I Longini (2004)

For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.

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Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections.

W. John Edmunds, C O’Callaghan, D Nokes (1997)

Although mixing patterns are thought to be important determinants of the spread of airborne infectious diseases, to our knowledge, there have been no attempts to directly quantify them for humans. We report on a preliminary study to identify such mixing patterns. A sample of 92 adults were asked to detail the individuals with whom they had conversed over the period of one, randomly assigned, day. Sixty-five (71%) completed the questionnaire, providing their age, the age of their contacts and the social context in which the contacts took place. The data were analysed using multilevel modelling. The study identified, and allowed the quantification of, contact patterns within this sample that may be of epidemiological significance. For example, the degree of assortativeness of mixing with respect to age was dependent not only on the age of participants but the number of contacts made. Estimates of the relative magnitude of contact rates between different social settings were made, with implications for outbreak potential. Simple questionnaire modifications are suggested which would yield information on the structure and dynamics of social networks and the intensity of contacts. Surveys of this nature may enable the quantification of who acquires infection from whom and from where.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Med Inform Decis Mak

Title: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1472-6947

Publication date Collection: 2007

Publication date (Electronic): 14 February 2007

Volume: 7

Page: 4

Affiliations

[1 ]Australian Biosecurity CRC, Division of Health Sciences, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia

[2 ]Department of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia

[3 ]Office of the Chief Veterinary Officer, Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra, Australia

Article

Publisher ID: 1472-6947-7-4

DOI: 10.1186/1472-6947-7-4

PMC ID: 1805744

PubMed ID: 17300714

SO-VID: 56b6f32a-7d86-4e31-bded-e11eb9cf334b

License:

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Using GIS to create synthetic disease outbreaks

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Abstract

Background

Results

Conclusion

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REPO4EU WP2 Databases

Most cited references 26

Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks.

Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.

Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections.

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