Changing epidemiology, global trends and implications for outcomes of NAFLD

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide. We estimated the global prevalence, incidence, progression, and outcomes of NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). PubMed/MEDLINE were searched from 1989 to 2015 for terms involving epidemiology and progression of NAFLD. Exclusions included selected groups (studies that exclusively enrolled morbidly obese or diabetics or pediatric) and no data on alcohol consumption or other liver diseases. Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis, overall mortality, and liver-related mortality were determined. NASH required histological diagnosis. All studies were reviewed by three independent investigators. Analysis was stratified by region, diagnostic technique, biopsy indication, and study population. We used random-effects models to provide point estimates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of prevalence, incidence, mortality and incidence rate ratios, and metaregression with subgroup analysis to account for heterogeneity. Of 729 studies, 86 were included with a sample size of 8,515,431 from 22 countries. Global prevalence of NAFLD is 25.24% (95% CI: 22.10-28.65) with highest prevalence in the Middle East and South America and lowest in Africa. Metabolic comorbidities associated with NAFLD included obesity (51.34%; 95% CI: 41.38-61.20), type 2 diabetes (22.51%; 95% CI: 17.92-27.89), hyperlipidemia (69.16%; 95% CI: 49.91-83.46%), hypertension (39.34%; 95% CI: 33.15-45.88), and metabolic syndrome (42.54%; 95% CI: 30.06-56.05). Fibrosis progression proportion, and mean annual rate of progression in NASH were 40.76% (95% CI: 34.69-47.13) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06-0.12). HCC incidence among NAFLD patients was 0.44 per 1,000 person-years (range, 0.29-0.66). Liver-specific mortality and overall mortality among NAFLD and NASH were 0.77 per 1,000 (range, 0.33-1.77) and 11.77 per 1,000 person-years (range, 7.10-19.53) and 15.44 per 1,000 (range, 11.72-20.34) and 25.56 per 1,000 person-years (range, 6.29-103.80). Incidence risk ratios for liver-specific and overall mortality for NAFLD were 1.94 (range, 1.28-2.92) and 1.05 (range, 0.70-1.56).

Background While the rising pandemic of obesity has received significant attention in many countries, the effect of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remains uncertain. Methods We analyzed data from 67.8 million individuals to assess the trends in obesity and overweight prevalence among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body mass index (BMI), by age, sex, cause, and BMI level in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. Results In 2015, obesity affected 107.7 million (98.7-118.4) children and 603.7 million (588.2- 619.8) adults worldwide. Obesity prevalence has doubled since 1980 in more than 70 countries and continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries was greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million (2.7- 5.3) deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred among non-obese. More than two-thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden of high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated due to decreases in underlying cardiovascular disease death rates. Conclusions The rapid increase in prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a burgeoning health problem of unknown etiology that varies in prevalence among ethnic groups. To identify genetic variants contributing to differences in hepatic fat content, we performed a genome-wide association scan of nonsynonymous sequence variations (n=9,229) in a multiethnic population. An allele in PNPLA3 (rs738409; I148M) was strongly associated with increased hepatic fat levels (P=5.9×10−10) and with hepatic inflammation (P=3.7×10−4). The allele was most common in Hispanics, the group most susceptible to NAFLD; hepatic fat content was > 2-fold higher in PNPLA3-148M homozygotes than in noncarriers. Resequencing revealed another allele associated with lower hepatic fat content in African-Americans, the group at lowest risk of NAFLD. Thus, variation in PNPLA3 contributes to ethnic and inter-individual differences in hepatic fat content and susceptibility to NAFLD.