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      Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing

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          The spreading of disorder.

          Imagine that the neighborhood you are living in is covered with graffiti, litter, and unreturned shopping carts. Would this reality cause you to litter more, trespass, or even steal? A thesis known as the broken windows theory suggests that signs of disorderly and petty criminal behavior trigger more disorderly and petty criminal behavior, thus causing the behavior to spread. This may cause neighborhoods to decay and the quality of life of its inhabitants to deteriorate. For a city government, this may be a vital policy issue. But does disorder really spread in neighborhoods? So far there has not been strong empirical support, and it is not clear what constitutes disorder and what may make it spread. We generated hypotheses about the spread of disorder and tested them in six field experiments. We found that, when people observe that others violated a certain social norm or legitimate rule, they are more likely to violate other norms or rules, which causes disorder to spread.
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            Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime

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              ASSESSING THE EXTENT OF CRIME DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BENEFITS: A REVIEW OF SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION EVALUATIONS*

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of the American Statistical Association
                Journal of the American Statistical Association
                Informa UK Limited
                0162-1459
                1537-274X
                January 15 2016
                January 15 2016
                : 110
                : 512
                : 1399-1411
                Article
                10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710
                4a4d1906-9807-43eb-bd68-97d8e8b35bf8
                © 2016
                History

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