Estimação de parâmetros genéticos em caprinos leiteiros por meio de análise de regressão aleatória utilizando-se a Amostragem de Gibbs

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Abstract

Modelos de regressão aleatória foram utilizados neste estudo para estimar parâmetros genéticos da produção de leite no dia do controle (PLDC) em caprinos leiteiros da raça Alpina, por meio da metodologia Bayesiana. As estimativas geradas foram comparadas às obtidas com análise de regressão aleatória, utilizando-se o REML. As herdabilidades encontradas pela análise Bayesiana variaram de 0,18 a 0,37, enquanto, pelo REML, variaram de 0,09 a 0,32. As correlações genéticas entre dias de controle próximos se aproximaram da unidade, decrescendo gradualmente conforme a distância entre os dias de controle aumentou. Os resultados obtidos indicam que: a estrutura de covariâncias da PLDC em caprinos ao longo da lactação pode ser modelada adequadamente por meio da regressão aleatória; a predição de ganhos genéticos e a seleção de animais geneticamente superiores é viável ao longo de toda a trajetória da lactação; os resultados gerados pelas análises de regressão aleatória utilizando-se a Amostragem de Gibbs e o REML foram semelhantes, embora as estimativas das variâncias genéticas e das herdabilidades tenham sido levemente superiores na análise Bayesiana, utilizando-se a Amostragem de Gibbs.

Translated abstract

Random regression models were used to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk yield (PLDC) of Alpine dairy goats, implemented by Bayesian methods with Gibbs Sampling. The estimates were compared with those obtained by random regression analysis, using REML. Heritability estimates obtained by Bayesian analysis ranged from 0.18 to 0.37, while those obtained by REML ranged from 0.09 to 0.32. Genetic correlations between yields of close test days approached the unit, but decreased gradually as the interval between test days increased. Results indicated that random regression models are appropriate to model the covariance structure of PLDC and to predict genetic gains and select animals along the lactation trajectory of dairy goats. Results obtained by Bayesian and REML approaches were similar, although genetic variance and heritability estimates were slightly higher with Bayesian methods.

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Genetic evaluation of dairy cattle using test-day models.

Louise Jensen (2001)

Recently there has been considerable interest in modeling individual test-day records (TDR) for genetic evaluation of dairy cattle as a replacement for the traditional use of estimated accumulated 305-d yields. Some advantages of test-day models (TDM) include the ability to account for environmental effects of each test day, the ability to model the trajectory of the lactation for individual genotypes or groups of animals, and the possibility of genetic evaluations for persistency of production. Also, the use of test-day models avoids the necessity of extending short lactations on culled animals and animals with records in progress. The disadvantages of TDM include computational difficulties associated with analyzing much larger datasets and the need to estimate many more parameters than in a traditional 305-d lactation model. Several different models have been proposed to model the trajectory of the lactation, including so-called "biological functions," various polynomials and character process models. At present, there is not universal agreement on which models to use in routine prediction of breeding values and better methods to compare models are desirable. Obtaining accurate estimates of the dispersion parameters to use in TDM remains a challenge. Methods used include a two-step procedure in which the dispersion parameters are estimated in a series of multivariate models followed by a reduction in order of fit using covariance functions, and a one-step procedure in which the parameters of TDM are estimated using restricted maximum likelihood or Bayesian methods in a random regression model. Further research should focus on including multiple lactation data and accounting for heterogeneity variance.