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      Compound Risk of Air Pollution and Heat Days and the Influence of Wildfire by SES across California, 2018–2020: Implications for Environmental Justice in the Context of Climate Change

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          Abstract

          Major wildfires and heatwaves have begun to increase in frequency throughout much of the United States, particularly in western states such as California, causing increased risk to public health. Air pollution is exacerbated by both wildfires and warmer temperatures, thus adding to such risk. With climate change and the continued increase in global average temperatures, the frequency of major wildfires, heat days, and unhealthy air pollution episodes is projected to increase, resulting in the potential for compounding risks. Risks will likely vary by region and may disproportionately impact low-income communities and communities of color. In this study, we processed daily particulate matter (PM) data from over 18,000 low-cost PurpleAir sensors, along with gridMET daily maximum temperature data and government-compiled wildfire perimeter data from 2018–2020 in order to examine the occurrence of compound risk (CR) days (characterized by high temperature and high PM 2.5) at the census tract level in California, and to understand how such days have been impacted by the occurrence of wildfires. Using American Community Survey data, we also examined the extent to which CR days were correlated with household income, race/ethnicity, education, and other socioeconomic factors at the census tract level. Results showed census tracts with a higher frequency of CR days to have statistically higher rates of poverty and unemployment, along with high proportions of child residents and households without computers. The frequency of CR days and elevated daily PM 2.5 concentrations appeared to be strongly related to the occurrence of nearby wildfires, with over 20% of days with sensor-measured average PM 2.5 > 35 μg/m 3 showing a wildfire within a 100 km radius and over two-thirds of estimated CR days falling on such days with a nearby wildfire. Findings from this study are important to policymakers and government agencies who preside over the allocation of state resources as well as organizations seeking to empower residents and establish climate resilient communities.

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          Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.

          Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.
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            Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling

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              Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities

              Background Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. Objectives We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987–2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves’ intensity, duration, or timing in season. Methods Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Results Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29–5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06–7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14–4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. Conclusions We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                101748935
                48688
                Climate (Basel)
                Climate (Basel)
                Climate (Basel, Switzerland)
                2225-1154
                27 February 2024
                October 2022
                01 October 2022
                07 March 2024
                : 10
                : 10
                : 145
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
                [2 ]Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
                Author notes

                Author Contributions: Conceptualization, S.M.; Data curation, Y.J. and J.W.; Formal analysis, S.M; Funding acquisition, Y.J. and J.W.; Investigation, S.M. and J.W.; Methodology, S.M.; Project administration, J.W.; Software, S.M.; Supervision, J.W.; Validation, S.M.; Visualization, J.W.; Writing—original draft, S.M.; Writing—review & editing, Y.J. and J.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

                [* ]Correspondence: masris@ 123456uci.edu
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2693-7112
                Article
                NIHMS1967156
                10.3390/cli10100145
                10919222
                38456148
                3488bd5d-6f78-4da8-bff5-f7403525bf7b

                This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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                climate change,heatwaves,air pollution,purpleair,pm2.5,compound risk

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