Use of serum KL-6 and chest radiographic severity grade to predict 28-day mortality in COVID-19 patients with pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

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Abstract

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a global social and economic impact. An easy assessment procedure to handily identify the mortality risk of inpatients is urgently needed in clinical practice. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a simple nomogram model to categorize patients who might have a poor short-term outcome.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 189 COVID-19 patients was performed at Shanghai Ren Ji Hospital from December 12, 2022 to February 28, 2023. Chest radiography and biomarkers, including KL-6 were assessed. Risk factors of 28-day mortality were selected by a Cox regression model. A nomogram was developed based on selected variables by SMOTE strategy. The predictive performance of the derived nomogram was evaluated by calibration curve.

Results

In total, 173 patients were enrolled in this study. The 28-day mortality event occurred in 41 inpatients (23.7%). Serum KL-6 and radiological severity grade (RSG) were selected as the final risk factors. A nomogram model was developed based on KL-6 and RSG. The calibration curve suggested that the nomogram model might have potential clinical value. The AUCs for serum KL-6, RSG, and the combined score in the development group and validation group were 0.885 (95% CI: 0.804–0.952), 0.818 (95% CI: 0.711–0.899), 0.868 (95% CI: 0.776–0.942) and 0.932 (95% CI: 0.862–0.997), respectively.

Conclusions

Our results suggested that the nomogram based on KL-6 and RSG might be a potential method for evaluating 28-day mortality in COVID-19 patients. A high combined score might indicate a poor outcome in COVID-19 patients with pneumonia.

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Most cited references 21

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Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

Wei-jie Guan, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu … (2020)

Abstract Background Since December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of the affected patients. Methods We extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Results The median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died. Only 1.9% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife. Among nonresidents of Wuhan, 72.3% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 31.3% who had visited the city. The most common symptoms were fever (43.8% on admission and 88.7% during hospitalization) and cough (67.8%). Diarrhea was uncommon (3.8%). The median incubation period was 4 days (interquartile range, 2 to 7). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the most common radiologic finding on chest computed tomography (CT) (56.4%). No radiographic or CT abnormality was found in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with nonsevere disease and in 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease. Lymphocytopenia was present in 83.2% of the patients on admission. Conclusions During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness. Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. (Funded by the National Health Commission of China and others.)

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Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy

Giacomo Grasselli, Alberto Zangrillo, Alberto Zanella … (2020)

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) emerged in China and has spread globally, creating a pandemic. Information about the clinical characteristics of infected patients who require intensive care is limited.

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Time Course of Lung Changes On Chest CT During Recovery From 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia

Feng Pan, Tianhe Ye, Peng Sun … (2020)

Background Chest CT is used to assess the severity of lung involvement in COVID-19 pneumonia. Purpose To determine the change in chest CT findings associated with COVID-19 pneumonia from initial diagnosis until patient recovery. Materials and Methods This retrospective review included patients with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infection presenting between 12 January 2020 to 6 February 2020. Patients with severe respiratory distress and/ or oxygen requirement at any time during the disease course were excluded. Repeat Chest CT was obtained at approximately 4 day intervals. The total CT score was the sum of lung involvement (5 lobes, score 1-5 for each lobe, range, 0 none, 25 maximum) was determined. Results Twenty one patients (6 males and 15 females, age 25-63 years) with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia were evaluated. These patients under went a total of 82 pulmonary CT scans with a mean interval of 4±1 days (range: 1-8 days). All patients were discharged after a mean hospitalized period of 17±4 days (range: 11-26 days). Maximum lung involved peaked at approximately 10 days (with the calculated total CT score of 6) from the onset of initial symptoms (R2=0.25), p<0.001). Based on quartiles of patients from day 0 to day 26 involvement, 4 stages of lung CT were defined: Stage 1 (0-4 days): ground glass opacities (GGO) in 18/24 (75%) patients with the total CT score of 2±2; (2)Stage-2 (5-8d days): increased crazy-paving pattern 9/17 patients (53%) with a increase in total CT score (6±4, p=0.002); (3) Stage-3 (9-13days): consolidation 19/21 (91%) patients with the peak of total CT score (7±4); (4) Stage-4 (≥14 days): gradual resolution of consolidation 15/20 (75%) patients with a decreased total CT score (6±4) without crazy-paving pattern. Conclusion In patients recovering from COVID-19 pneumonia (without severe respiratory distress during the disease course), lung abnormalities on chest CT showed greatest severity approximately 10 days after initial onset of symptoms.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Handong Jiang: jianghd@163.com

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Pulm Med

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Pulm Med

Title: BMC Pulmonary Medicine

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1471-2466

Publication date (Electronic): 18 April 2024

Publication date PMC-release: 18 April 2024

Publication date Collection: 2024

Volume: 24

Electronic Location Identifier: 187

Affiliations

[1 ]Department of Respirology, Ren Ji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, ( https://ror.org/0220qvk04) No.160 Pujian Rd, 200127 Shanghai, China

[2 ]Department of Nuclear Medicine, Ren Ji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, ( https://ror.org/0220qvk04) Shanghai, China

Article

Publisher ID: 2992

DOI: 10.1186/s12890-024-02992-0

PMC ID: 11027533

PubMed ID: 38637771

SO-VID: 30b65f34-5da5-4966-b3d2-cd8a92a73ff8

License:

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

History

Date received : 19 October 2023

Date accepted : 2 April 2024

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Respiratory medicine

Keywords: covid-19,kl-6,hrct,mortality

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Respiratory medicine

Keywords: covid-19, kl-6, hrct, mortality

Use of serum KL-6 and chest radiographic severity grade to predict 28-day mortality in COVID-19 patients with pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

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Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Related collections

Novel Coronavirus Disease COVID-19

Most cited references 21

Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy

Time Course of Lung Changes On Chest CT During Recovery From 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia

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