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      Obesity as a Risk Factor for Severe COVID-19: Summary of the Best Evidence and Implications for Health Care

      review-article
      , MD, FMedSci 1 , , , MD, FRCP 2 , 3 , 4
      Current Obesity Reports
      Springer US
      Epidemiology, Body mass Index, Genetics, Multimorbidity, Diet, Activity

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          Abstract

          Purpose of Review

          To collate the best evidence from several strands—epidemiological, genetic, comparison with historical data and mechanistic information—and ask whether obesity is an important causal and potentially modifiable risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes.

          Recent Findings

          Several hundred studies provide powerful evidence that body mass index (BMI) is a strong linear risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes, with recent studies suggesting ~5-10% higher risk for COVID-19 hospitalisation per every kg/m 2 higher BMI. Genetic data concur with hazard ratios increasing by 14% per every kg/m 2 higher BMI. BMI to COVID-19 links differ markedly from prior BMI-infection associations and are further supported as likely causal by multiple biologically plausible pathways.

          Summary

          Excess adiposity appears to be an important, modifiable risk factor for adverse COVID-19 outcomes across all ethnicities. The pandemic is also worsening obesity levels. It is imperative that medical systems worldwide meet this challenge by upscaling investments in obesity prevention and treatments.

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          Most cited references32

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          OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19 death in 17 million patients

          COVID-19 has rapidly impacted on mortality worldwide. 1 There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, requiring new approaches for timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England we created OpenSAFELY: a secure health analytics platform covering 40% of all patients in England, holding patient data within the existing data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19 related deaths. COVID-19 related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio 1.59, 95%CI 1.53-1.65); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared to people with white ethnicity, black and South Asian people were at higher risk even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48, 1.29-1.69 and 1.45, 1.32-1.58 respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for COVID-19 related death in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. OpenSAFELY is rapidly adding further patients’ records; we will update and extend results regularly.
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            Once-Weekly Semaglutide in Adults with Overweight or Obesity

            Obesity is a global health challenge with few pharmacologic options. Whether adults with obesity can achieve weight loss with once-weekly semaglutide at a dose of 2.4 mg as an adjunct to lifestyle intervention has not been confirmed.
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              Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents

              Summary Background Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Methods Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2. Findings All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m2) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m2) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m2, mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m2) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. Interpretation The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Naveed.Sattar@glasgow.ac.uk
                Journal
                Curr Obes Rep
                Curr Obes Rep
                Current Obesity Reports
                Springer US (New York )
                2162-4968
                10 August 2021
                10 August 2021
                : 1-8
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.8756.c, ISNI 0000 0001 2193 314X, Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, , University of Glasgow, ; 126 University Place, Glasgow, G12 8TA UK
                [2 ]GRID grid.451052.7, ISNI 0000 0004 0581 2008, NHS England & Improvement, ; London, UK
                [3 ]GRID grid.417895.6, ISNI 0000 0001 0693 2181, Department of Diabetes and Endocrinology, St Mary’s Hospital, , Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, ; London, UK
                [4 ]GRID grid.7445.2, ISNI 0000 0001 2113 8111, Division of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction, , Imperial College London, ; London, UK
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1604-2593
                Article
                448
                10.1007/s13679-021-00448-8
                8353061
                34374955
                2c474acd-43d9-46f8-884f-f7a4703b6a4f
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 11 June 2021
                Categories
                Health Services and Programs (R Welbourn and C Borg, Section Editors)

                Health & Social care
                epidemiology,body mass index,genetics,multimorbidity,diet,activity
                Health & Social care
                epidemiology, body mass index, genetics, multimorbidity, diet, activity

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