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      Early predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 in a large American cohort

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          Abstract

          Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has aggressively spread across the United States with numerous fatalities. Risk factors for mortality are poorly described. This was a multicentered cohort study identifying patient characteristics and diagnostic markers present on initial evaluation associated with mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of survivors and non-survivors were obtained from electronic medical records and a multivariable survival regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors of in-hospital death. Of 1629 consecutive hospitalized adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 from March 1st thru March 31, 2020, 1461 patients were included in final analysis. 327 patients died during hospitalization and 1134 survived to discharge. Median age was 62 years (IQR 50.0, 74.0) with 56% of hospitalized patients under the age of 65. 47% were female and 63% identified as African American. Most patients (55%) had either no or one comorbidity. In multivariable analysis, older age, admission respiratory status including elevated respiratory rate and oxygen saturation ≤ 88%, and initial laboratory derangements of creatinine > 1.33 mg/dL, alanine aminotransferase > 40 U/L, procalcitonin > 0.5 ng/mL, and lactic acid ≥ 2 mmol/L increased risk of in-hospital death. This study is one of the largest analyses in an epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic. Older age, low oxygen saturation and elevated respiratory rate on admission, and initial lab derangements including renal and hepatic dysfunction and elevated procalcitonin and lactic acid are risk factors for in-hospital death. These factors can help clinicians prognosticate and should be considered in management strategies.

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          Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

          Summary Background A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. Methods All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not. Findings By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission.
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            Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

            Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p<0·0001), and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL (18·42, 2·64–128·55; p=0·0033) on admission. Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.
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              A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019

              Summary In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause was linked to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. A previously unknown betacoronavirus was discovered through the use of unbiased sequencing in samples from patients with pneumonia. Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily. Different from both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are ongoing. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China.)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Amit.bahl@beaumont.edu
                Journal
                Intern Emerg Med
                Intern Emerg Med
                Internal and Emergency Medicine
                Springer International Publishing (Cham )
                1828-0447
                1970-9366
                24 September 2020
                : 1-15
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.427918.1, Department of Emergency Medicine, , Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, ; 3601 13 Mile Rd, Royal Oak, MI 48073 USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.261277.7, ISNI 0000 0001 2219 916X, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, ; Rochester, MI USA
                [3 ]GRID grid.461921.9, ISNI 0000 0004 0460 1081, Beaumont Health Research Institute, ; Royal Oak, MI USA
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9495-1293
                Article
                2509
                10.1007/s11739-020-02509-7
                7512216
                32970246
                25de9b81-4842-4f21-a722-9ef628a99100
                © Società Italiana di Medicina Interna (SIMI) 2020

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

                History
                : 19 June 2020
                : 12 September 2020
                Categories
                Im - Original

                Emergency medicine & Trauma
                covid-19,mortality,predictors,scoring system
                Emergency medicine & Trauma
                covid-19, mortality, predictors, scoring system

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