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      Predictors of time to death among cervical cancer patients at Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital from 2014 to 2019: A survival analysis

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          Abstract

          Background

          Cervical cancer (CC) is the 4 th most prevalent cancer among females globally. In Ethiopia, around 7,095 new CC cases are diagnosed every year and it is the second common cause of cancer deaths in women. There is limited evidence on survival status as well as about predictors of time to death among CC patients in Ethiopia. Thus, this study investigated the five-year survival status and predictors of time to death among CC patients who had been admitted at Tikur Anbesa specialized Hospital (TASH) from 2014–2019.

          Methods

          Facility-based, retrospective-cohort study was conducted at Tikur Anbesa specialized Hospital among 348 patients from June 2014 to June 2019. A systematic random sampling method was employed to select the study participants. Data were extracted from the patient card, and through phone calls. The data was collected using the android version CS-Entry tool. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 23. Kaplan and Meier’s method was used to estimate survival functions and Cox-proportional hazard regression analysis was carried out in order to identify the independent predictors of time to death.

          Results

          The overall incidence of death was 31 per 100 person-years of follow up. The median (IQR) follow-up time of the entire cohorts was 18.55 (8.96–49.65) months. The independent predictors for time to death included; age older than 50 years [AHR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1–1.9], late stage of CC at diagnosis [AHR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.7–2.9], No CC treatment [AHR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.5–3.1] and HIV positive [AHR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.4–3.8].

          Conclusion and recommendation

          The death rate of CC patients was high. The significant predictors associated with shorten time to death of CC patients were older age, advanced cancer stage at diagnosis, HIV infection and not receiving cancer treatment. Therefore, improving early detection and initiation of treatment for all CC patients is necessary in order to improve patient’s survival status. The government needs to strengthen the routine CC screening programs to address high-risk women such as elderly and HIV positive women in Ethiopia.

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          Most cited references31

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          Estimates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in 2018: a worldwide analysis

          Summary Background The knowledge that persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the main cause of cervical cancer has resulted in the development of prophylactic vaccines to prevent HPV infection and HPV assays that detect nucleic acids of the virus. WHO has launched a Global Initiative to scale up preventive, screening, and treatment interventions to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem during the 21st century. Therefore, our study aimed to assess the existing burden of cervical cancer as a baseline from which to assess the effect of this initiative. Methods For this worldwide analysis, we used data of cancer estimates from 185 countries from the Global Cancer Observatory 2018 database. We used a hierarchy of methods dependent on the availability and quality of the source information from population-based cancer registries to estimate incidence of cervical cancer. For estimation of cervical cancer mortality, we used the WHO mortality database. Countries were grouped in 21 subcontinents and were also categorised as high-resource or lower-resource countries, on the basis of their Human Development Index. We calculated the number of cervical cancer cases and deaths in a given country, directly age-standardised incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer, indirectly standardised incidence ratio and mortality ratio, cumulative incidence and mortality rate, and average age at diagnosis. Findings Approximately 570 000 cases of cervical cancer and 311 000 deaths from the disease occurred in 2018. Cervical cancer was the fourth most common cancer in women, ranking after breast cancer (2·1 million cases), colorectal cancer (0·8 million) and lung cancer (0·7 million). The estimated age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer was 13·1 per 100 000 women globally and varied widely among countries, with rates ranging from less than 2 to 75 per 100 000 women. Cervical cancer was the leading cause of cancer-related death in women in eastern, western, middle, and southern Africa. The highest incidence was estimated in Eswatini, with approximately 6·5% of women developing cervical cancer before age 75 years. China and India together contributed more than a third of the global cervical burden, with 106 000 cases in China and 97 000 cases in India, and 48 000 deaths in China and 60 000 deaths in India. Globally, the average age at diagnosis of cervical cancer was 53 years, ranging from 44 years (Vanuatu) to 68 years (Singapore). The global average age at death from cervical cancer was 59 years, ranging from 45 years (Vanuatu) to 76 years (Martinique). Cervical cancer ranked in the top three cancers affecting women younger than 45 years in 146 (79%) of 185 countries assessed. Interpretation Cervical cancer continues to be a major public health problem affecting middle-aged women, particularly in less-resourced countries. The global scale-up of HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening—including self-sampling—has potential to make cervical cancer a rare disease in the decades to come. Our study could help shape and monitor the initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a major public health problem. Funding Belgian Foundation Against Cancer, DG Research and Innovation of the European Commission, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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            Randomised study of radical surgery versus radiotherapy for stage Ib-IIa cervical cancer.

            Stage Ib and IIa cervical carcinoma can be cured by radical surgery or radiotherapy. These two procedures are equally effective, but differ in associated morbidity and type of complications. In this prospective randomised trial of radiotherapy versus surgery, our aim was to assess the 5-year survival and the rate and pattern of complications and recurrences associated with each treatment. Between September, 1986, and December, 1991, 469 women with newly diagnosed stage Ib and IIa cervical carcinoma were referred to our institute. 343 eligible patients were randomised: 172 to surgery and 171 to radical radiotherapy. Adjuvant radiotherapy was delivered after surgery for women with surgical stage pT2b or greater, less than 3 mm of safe cervical stroma, cut-through, or positive nodes. The primary outcome measures were 5-year survival and the rate of complications. The analysis of survival and recurrence was by intention to treat and analysis of complications was by treatment delivered. 170 patients in the surgery group and 167 in the radiotherapy group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis; scheduled treatment was delivered to 169 and 158 women, respectively, 62 of 114 women with cervical diameters of 4 cm or smaller and 46 of 55 with diameters larger than 4 cm received adjuvant therapy. After a median follow-up of 87 (range 57-120) months, 5-year overall and disease-free survival were identical in the surgery and radiotherapy groups (83% and 74%, respectively, for both groups), 86 women developed recurrent disease: 42 (25%) in the surgery group and 44 (26%) in the radiotherapy group. Significant factors for survival in univariate and multivariate analyses were: cervical diameter, positive lymphangiography, and adeno-carcinomatous histotype. 48 (28%) surgery-group patients had severe morbidity compared with 19 (12%) radiotherapy-group patients (p = 0.0004). There is no treatment of choice for early-stage cervical carcinoma in terms of overall or disease-free survival. The combination of surgery and radiotherapy has the worst morbidity, especially urological complications. The optimum therapy for each patient should take account of clinical factors such as menopausal status, age, medical illness, histological type, and cervical diameter to yield the best cure with minimum complications.
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              American Cancer Society, American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology, and American Society for Clinical Pathology screening guidelines for the prevention and early detection of cervical cancer.

              An update to the American Cancer Society (ACS) guideline regarding screening for the early detection of cervical precancerous lesions and cancer is presented. The guidelines are based on a systematic evidence review, contributions from six working groups, and a recent symposium co-sponsored by the ACS, American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP), and American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP), which was attended by 25 organizations. The new screening recommendations address age-appropriate screening strategies, including the use of cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, follow-up (e.g., management of screen positives and screening interval for screen negatives) of women after screening, age at which to exit screening, future considerations regarding HPV testing alone as a primary screening approach, and screening strategies for women vaccinated against HPV16/18 infections.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                24 February 2022
                2022
                : 17
                : 2
                : e0264369
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Collage of Medicine and Health Sciences, Ambo University, Ambo, Ethiopia
                [2 ] Faculty of Public Health, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
                [3 ] College of Medicine and Health Science, Ambo University, Ambo, Ethiopia
                [4 ] Faculty of Public Health, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
                University of California Irvine, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3861-0878
                Article
                PONE-D-21-03938
                10.1371/journal.pone.0264369
                8870501
                35202442
                259ca19c-8a39-42c4-b002-67ec2f06f830
                © 2022 Seifu et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 4 February 2021
                : 9 February 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 5, Pages: 15
                Funding
                The authors received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                The data relevant to this study cannot be shared as it contains potentially identifying and sensitive clinical, medical, and pathological information. Interested researchers can send requests for data to Jimma University research ethics review committee. Requests can be directed to Gudina Terefe Tucho via e-mail address: gudina.terefe@ 123456ju.edu.et . The collected data for this study are also available from the principal author and will be available upon request.

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