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      stpm: an R package for stochastic process model

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          Abstract

          Background

          The Stochastic Process Model (SPM) represents a general framework for modeling the joint evolution of repeatedly measured variables and time-to-event outcomes observed in longitudinal studies, i.e., SPM relates the stochastic dynamics of variables (e.g., physiological or biological measures) with the probabilities of end points (e.g., death or system failure). SPM is applicable for analyses of longitudinal data in many research areas; however, there are no publicly available software tools that implement this methodology.

          Results

          We developed an R package stpm for the SPM-methodology. The package estimates several versions of SPM currently available in the literature including discrete- and continuous-time multidimensional models and a one-dimensional model with time-dependent parameters. Also, the package provides tools for simulation and projection of individual trajectories and hazard functions.

          Conclusion

          In this paper, we present the first software implementation of the SPM-methodology by providing an R package stpm, which was verified through extensive simulation and validation studies. Future work includes further improvements of the model. Clinical and academic researchers will benefit from using the presented model and software. The R package stpm is available as open source software from the following links: https://cran.r-project.org/package=stpm(stable version) or https://github.com/izhbannikov/spm(developer version).

          Electronic supplementary material

          The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12859-017-1538-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Most cited references34

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          PyMC: Bayesian Stochastic Modelling in Python.

          This user guide describes a Python package, PyMC, that allows users to efficiently code a probabilistic model and draw samples from its posterior distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.
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            Joint modelling of longitudinal measurements and event time data.

            This paper formulates a class of models for the joint behaviour of a sequence of longitudinal measurements and an associated sequence of event times, including single-event survival data. This class includes and extends a number of specific models which have been proposed recently, and, in the absence of association, reduces to separate models for the measurements and events based, respectively, on a normal linear model with correlated errors and a semi-parametric proportional hazards or intensity model with frailty. Special cases of the model class are discussed in detail and an estimation procedure which allows the two components to be linked through a latent stochastic process is described. Methods are illustrated using results from a clinical trial into the treatment of schizophrenia.
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              Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic tool for prostate cancer recurrence using repeated measures of posttreatment PSA: a joint modeling approach.

              Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a biomarker routinely and repeatedly measured on prostate cancer patients treated by radiation therapy (RT). It was shown recently that its whole pattern over time rather than just its current level was strongly associated with prostate cancer recurrence. To more accurately guide clinical decision making, monitoring of PSA after RT would be aided by dynamic powerful prognostic tools that incorporate the complete posttreatment PSA evolution. In this work, we propose a dynamic prognostic tool derived from a joint latent class model and provide a measure of variability obtained from the parameters asymptotic distribution. To validate this prognostic tool, we consider predictive accuracy measures and provide an empirical estimate of their variability. We also show how to use them in the longitudinal context to compare the dynamic prognostic tool we developed with a proportional hazard model including either baseline covariates or baseline covariates and the expected level of PSA at the time of prediction in a landmark model. Using data from 3 large cohorts of patients treated after the diagnosis of prostate cancer, we show that the dynamic prognostic tool based on the joint model reduces the error of prediction and offers a powerful tool for individual prediction.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                ilya.zhbannikov@duke.edu
                konstantin.arbeev@duke.edu
                igor.akushevich@duke.edu
                eric.stallard@duke.edu
                aiy@duke.edu
                Journal
                BMC Bioinformatics
                BMC Bioinformatics
                BMC Bioinformatics
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2105
                23 February 2017
                23 February 2017
                2017
                : 18
                : 125
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7961, GRID grid.26009.3d, Biodemography of Aging Research Unit (BARU) at Social Science Research Institute, , Duke University, ; 2024 W. Main St., Durham, Box 90420, 27705 NC USA
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7961, GRID grid.26009.3d, Duke Population Research Institute, , Duke University, ; Durham, Box 90989, 27708-0989 NC USA
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6502-6514
                Article
                1538
                10.1186/s12859-017-1538-7
                5324240
                28231764
                1e416233-3fbe-42f5-87f4-942d8724de7c
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 16 June 2016
                : 7 February 2017
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health;
                Award ID: P01AG043352
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health;
                Award ID: R01AG046860
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health;
                Award ID: P30AG034424
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Software
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Bioinformatics & Computational biology
                stochastic process model,quadratic hazard,longitudinal data,life tables,risk factors

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