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      Prevalence of bovine tuberculosis and its associated risk factors in the emerging dairy belts of regional cities in Ethiopia

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          Abstract

          Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has become an economically important disease in dairy herds found in and around Addis Ababa City and is emerging in regional cities like Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle because of the establishment of dairy farms in the milk sheds of these cities. A cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of BTB and identify associated risk factors was conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. A total of 174 herds comprising of 2,754 dairy cattle in the cities of Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle were tested using the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test. Data on herd structure, animal origin, body condition, housing condition, farm hygiene, management and biosecurity practices were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were used to analyze the herd and animal level risk factors, respectively. The herd prevalence was 22.4% (95% CI: 17–29%) while the animal prevalence was 5.2% (95% CI: 4–6%) at the cut-off > 4 mm. The herd prevalence rose to 65.5% (95% CI: 58–72%) and the animal prevalence rose to 9% (95% CI: 8–10%) when the severe interpretation of > 2 mm cut-off was applied. The mean within-herd prevalence in positive farms at the cut-off > 4 mm was 22.7% (95% CI: 15–31%). At the herd level, the analysis showed that herd size, farm hygiene, feeding condition and biosecurity were significantly associated with BTB status, while new cattle introductions showed only borderline significance and that age of farm, housing condition, farmers’ educational status and animal health care practice were not significant. At the animal level, the results showed that age and animal origin were identified as significant predictors for BTB positivity but sex and body condition score were not related to BTB status. Descriptive analysis revealed that herds having ‘BTB history’ showed slightly higher likelihood of being BTB positive compared to farms having no previous BTB exposure. In conclusion, this study showed relatively lower average prevalence in the emerging dairy regions as compared to the prevalence observed in and around Addis Ababa City, warranting for implementation of control program at this stage to reduce or possibly stop further transmission of BTB.

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          Understanding logistic regression analysis

          Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.
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            A clarification of transmission terms in host-microparasite models: numbers, densities and areas.

            Transmission is the driving force in the dynamics of any infectious disease. A crucial element in understanding disease dynamics, therefore, is the 'transmission term' describing the rate at which susceptible hosts are 'converted' into infected hosts by their contact with infectious material. Recently, the conventional form of this term has been increasingly questioned, and new terminologies and conventions have been proposed. Here, therefore, we review the derivation of transmission terms, explain the basis of confusion, and provide clarification. The root of the problem has been a failure to include explicit consideration of the area occupied by a host population, alongside both the number of infectious hosts and their density within the population. We argue that the terms 'density-dependent transmission' and 'frequency-dependent transmission' remain valid and useful (though a 'fuller' transmission term for the former is identified), but that the terms 'mass action', 'true mass action' and 'pseudo mass action' are all unhelpful and should be dropped. Also, contrary to what has often been assumed, the distinction between homogeneous and heterogeneous mixing in a host population is orthogonal to the distinction between density- and frequency-dependent transmission modes.
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              Classification of worldwide bovine tuberculosis risk factors in cattle: a stratified approach

              The worldwide status of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) as a zoonosis remains of great concern. This article reviews the main risk factors for bTB in cattle based on a three-level classification: animal, herd and region/country level. A distinction is also made, whenever possible, between situations in developed and developing countries as the difference of context might have consequences in terms of risk of bTB. Recommendations are suggested to animal health professionals and scientists directly involved in the control and prevention of bTB in cattle. The determination of Millenium Development Goals for bTB is proposed to improve the control/eradication of the disease worldwide.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                8217463
                20666
                Prev Vet Med
                Prev Vet Med
                Preventive veterinary medicine
                0167-5877
                1873-1716
                19 July 2023
                01 July 2019
                23 April 2019
                24 July 2023
                : 168
                : 81-89
                Affiliations
                [a ]National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center, P.O. Box 04, Sebeta, Ethiopia
                [b ]Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, United Kingdom
                [c ]Bacteriology Department, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Weybridge, Surrey, United Kingdom
                [d ]Department of Statistics, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia
                [e ]Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
                [f ]Aklilu Lemma Institute of Pathobiology, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
                Author notes

                Author contributions

                Conceived and designed the research: GAM, AC, SB, SG, JW, GA

                Performed the research: GAM, ML, BT, AA, AO

                Analyzed the data: GAM, AC, BT

                Reviewed the Manuscript: GAM, AC, SB, BT, GA, JW

                Members of the ETHICOBOTS consortium

                The members of the Ethiopia Control of Bovine Tuberculosis Strategies (ETHICOBOTS) consortium are: Abraham Aseffa, Adane Mihret, Bamlak Tessema, Bizuneh Belachew, Eshcolewyene Fekadu, Fantanesh Melese, Gizachew Gemechu, Hawult Taye, Rea Tschopp, Shewit Haile, Sosina Ayalew, Tsegaye Hailu, all from Armauer Hansen Research Institute, Ethiopia; Rea Tschopp from Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Switzerland; Adam Bekele, Chilot Yirga, Mulualem Ambaw, Tadele Mamo, Tesfaye Solomon, all from Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Ethiopia; Tilaye Teklewold from Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute, Ethiopia; Solomon Gebre, Getachew Gari, Mesfin Sahle, Abde Aliy, Abebe Olani, Asegedech Sirak, Gizat Almaw, Getnet Mekonnen, Mekdes Tamiru, Sintayehu Guta, all from National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center, Ethiopia; James Wood, Andrew Conlan, Alan Clarke, all from Cambridge University, United Kingdom; Henrietta L. Moore and Catherine Hodge, both from University College London, United Kingdom; Constance Smith at University of Manchester, United Kingdom; R. Glyn Hewinson, Stefan Berg, Martin Vordermeier, Javier Nunez-Garcia, all from Animal and Plant Health Agency, United Kingdom; Gobena Ameni, Berecha Bayissa, Aboma Zewude, Adane Worku, Lemma Terfassa, Mahlet Chanyalew, Temesgen Mohammed, Miserach Zeleke, all from Addis ababa University, Ethiopia.

                [* ]Corresponding author at: National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center, P.O. Box 04, Sebeta, Ethiopia. getnet.abie.mekonnen@ 123456gmail.com , getabmek@ 123456yahoo.com (G.A. Mekonnen).
                Article
                NIHMS1910462
                10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.04.010
                10364076
                31097127
                14ba73d0-7504-4855-891a-cc1300f8d43e

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).

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                Categories
                Article

                Veterinary medicine
                bovine tuberculosis,cattle,prevalence,risk factors,emerging dairy sector,ethiopia
                Veterinary medicine
                bovine tuberculosis, cattle, prevalence, risk factors, emerging dairy sector, ethiopia

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