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      Reassessing the winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy

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          Abstract

          Citizens who support a party which enters government are systematically more satisfied with democracy compared to voters who supported a party which ends up in the opposition. This relationship is labelled as the “winner-loser gap,” but we lack firm causal evidence of this gap. We provide a causal estimate of the effects of voting for a winning or losing party by leveraging data from surveys fielded before and after new government formations in three well established democracies (Netherlands, Norway and Iceland) were announced in contexts of very high uncertainty. Using a regression discontinuity design comparing citizens’ levels of satisfaction with democracy just before and just after their electoral status (winner or loser) was revealed, we find that the impact of winning or losing is undistinguishable from zero. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings.

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          Political Institutions and Satisfaction with Democracy: A Cross-National Analysis of Consensus and Majoritarian Systems

          Christine A. Guillory, Christopher J. Anderson (1997)
          Do political institutions affect citizen satisfaction with democracy? If so, how? Using cross-sectional survey data for eleven European democracies together with data on the type of democracy in which individuals live, we demonstrate that the nature of representative democratic institutions (measured by Arend Lijphart's consensus-majority index of democracies) mediates the relationship between a person's status as part of the political minority or majority and his or her satisfaction with the way the system works. Specifically, we find that (1) the losers of democratic competition show lower levels of satisfaction than do those in the majority and (2) losers in systems that are more consensual display higher levels of satisfaction with the way democracy works than do losers in systems with majoritarian characteristics. Conversely, winners tend to be more satisfied with democracy the more a country's political institutions approximate pure majoritarian government.
          Article 0 comments Cited 185 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Losers' Consent

            Christopher J. Anderson, André Blais, Shaun Bowler … (2005)
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              Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs

              Guido Imbens, Andrew Gelman (2017)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Jean-François Daoust: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Miroslav Nemčok:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3556-5557
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Philipp Broniecki: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Peter J. Loewen: Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes Fernandes: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS One
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Title: PLOS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date (Electronic): 17 December 2024
                Publication date Collection: 2024
                Volume: 19
                Issue: 12
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0314967
                Affiliations
                [1 ] School of Applied Politics, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
                [2 ] School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
                [3 ] Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
                [4 ] Department of Government, College of Arts and Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America
                Federal University of ABC, BRAZIL
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3556-5557
                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-24-06817
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314967
                PMC ID: 11651613
                PubMed ID: 39689142
                SO-VID: 126d81cf-b1c2-4fd3-9c11-883d1b61b85d
                Copyright © © 2024 Daoust et al
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 22 February 2024
                Date accepted : 19 November 2024
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 1, Pages: 12
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416, Norges Forskningsråd;
                Award ID: 301443
                Miroslav Nemčok acknowledges funding from the Research Council of Norway for the WELTRUST project, reference number 301443. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Political Science
                Subject: Democracy
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Political Science
                Subject: Governments
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Political Science
                Subject: Elections
                Subject: Research and Analysis Methods
                Subject: Research Design
                Subject: Survey Research
                Subject: Surveys
                Subject: People and places
                Subject: Geographical locations
                Subject: Europe
                Subject: European Union
                Subject: Netherlands
                Subject: Research and Analysis Methods
                Subject: Research Design
                Subject: Physical Sciences
                Subject: Mathematics
                Subject: Discrete Mathematics
                Subject: Combinatorics
                Subject: Permutation
                Subject: People and Places
                Subject: Geographical Locations
                Subject: Europe
                Subject: Iceland
                Custom metadata
                Data Availability The replication materials are available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/O9NR33.

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized

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