Can NDVI identify drought refugia for mammals and birds in mesic landscapes?

Abstract

Refugia within landscapes are increasingly important as climate change intensifies, yet identifying refugia, and how they respond to climatic perturbations remains understudied. We use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) developed during extreme drought to identify drought refugia. We then utilise camera trapping to understand the ecological role and importance of these refugia under fluctuating rainfall conditions. Ground foraging mammals and birds were surveyed annually from 2016 to 2019 whereby 171 remote-sensing cameras were deployed in the southern section of the Grampians, Australia. NDVI values were calculated during Australia's millennium drought, allowing the assessment of how NDVI calculated during extreme drought predicts drought refugia and the response of biodiversity to NDVI under rainfall fluctuations. Site occupancy of bird and mammal assemblages were dependent on NDVI, with areas of high NDVI during drought exhibiting characteristics consistent with refugia. Rainfall pulses increased site occupancy at all sites with colonisation probability initially associated with higher NDVI sites. Extinction probabilities were greatest at low NDVI sites when rainfall declined. Within mesic systems, remotely sensed NDVI can identify areas of the landscape that act as drought refugia enabling landscape management to prioritise species conservation within these areas. The protection and persistence of refugia is crucial in ensuring landscapes and their species communities therein are resilient to a range of climate change scenarios.