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      Mechanisms of Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in HadGEM3-GC3.1 at Two Different Resolutions

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          Abstract

          This study broadly characterizes and compares the key processes governing internal Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in two resolutions of HadGEM3-GC3.1: N216ORCA025, corresponding to ∼60 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, and N96ORCA1 (∼135 km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean). Both models simulate AMV with a time scale of 60–80 years, which is related to low-frequency ocean and atmosphere circulation changes. In both models, ocean heat transport convergence dominates polar and subpolar AMV, whereas surface heat fluxes associated with cloud changes drive subtropical AMV. However, details of the ocean circulation changes differ between the models. In N216 subpolar subsurface density anomalies propagate into the subtropics along the western boundary, consistent with the more coherent circulation changes and widespread development of SST anomalies. In contrast, N96 subsurface density anomalies persist in the subpolar latitudes for longer, so circulation anomalies and the development of SST anomalies are more centered there. The drivers of subsurface density anomalies also differ between models. In N216, the NAO is the dominant driver, while upper-ocean salinity-controlled density anomalies that originate from the Arctic appear to be the dominant driver in N96. These results further highlight that internal AMV mechanisms are model dependent and motivate further work to better understand and constrain the differences.

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          Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

          By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
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            Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

            N. Rayner (2003)
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              Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes.

              Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above approximately 50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Climate
                American Meteorological Society
                0894-8755
                1520-0442
                February 15 2022
                February 15 2022
                : 35
                : 4
                : 1365-1383
                Affiliations
                [1 ]a Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
                [2 ]b National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
                [3 ]c Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
                Article
                10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0281.1
                bbc6037b-cee2-4a60-9b2c-e47753609268
                © 2022

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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