HIV epidemic in Far-Western Nepal: effect of seasonal labor migration to India

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Abstract

Background

Because of limited work opportunities in Nepal and the open-border provision between Nepal and India, a seasonal labor migration of males from Far-Western Nepal to India is common. Unsafe sexual activities of these migrants in India, such as frequent visits to brothels, lead to a high HIV prevalence among them and to a potential transmission upon their return home to Nepal. The present study aims to evaluate the role of such seasonal labor-migration to India on HIV transmission in Far-Western Nepal and to assess prevention programs.

Methods

An HIV epidemic model was developed for a population in Far-Western Nepal. The model was fitted to the data to estimate the back and forth mobility rates of labor-migrants to India, the HIV prevalence among migrants and the HIV transmission rate in Far-Western Nepal. HIV prevalence, new infections, disease deaths and HIV infections recruited from India were calculated. Prevention programs targeting the general population and the migrants were evaluated.

Results

Without any intervention programs, Far-Western Nepal will have about 7,000 HIV infected individuals returning from India by 2015, and 12,000 labor-migrants living with HIV in India. An increase of condom use among the general population from 39% to 80% will reduce new HIV infections due to sexual activity in Far-Western Nepal from 239 to 77. However, such a program loses its effectiveness due to the recruitment of HIV infections via returning migrants from India. The reduction of prevalence among migrants from 2.2% to 1.1% can bring general prevalence down to 0.4% with only 3,500 recruitments of HIV infections from India.

Conclusion

Recruitment of HIV infections from India via seasonal labor-migrants is the key factor contributing to the HIV epidemic in Far-Western Nepal. Prevention programs focused on the general population are ineffective. Our finding highlights the urgency of developing prevention programs which reduce the prevalence of HIV among migrants for a successful control of the HIV epidemic in Far-Western Nepal.

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Most cited references 21

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Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy.

Lena R. Douglass, Christopher P Neukermans, Mark Holodniy … (2005)

The costs, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of screening for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in health care settings during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have not been determined. We developed a Markov model of costs, quality of life, and survival associated with an HIV-screening program as compared with current practice. In both strategies, symptomatic patients were identified through symptom-based case finding. Identified patients started treatment when their CD4 count dropped to 350 cells per cubic millimeter. Disease progression was defined on the basis of CD4 levels and viral load. The likelihood of sexual transmission was based on viral load, knowledge of HIV status, and efficacy of counseling. Given a 1 percent prevalence of unidentified HIV infection, screening increased life expectancy by 5.48 days, or 4.70 quality-adjusted days, at an estimated cost of 194 dollars per screened patient, for a cost-effectiveness ratio of 15,078 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening cost less than 50,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year if the prevalence of unidentified HIV infection exceeded 0.05 percent. Excluding HIV transmission, the cost-effectiveness of screening was 41,736 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening every five years, as compared with a one-time screening program, cost 57,138 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year, but was more attractive in settings with a high incidence of infection. Our results were sensitive to the efficacy of behavior modification, the benefit of early identification and therapy, and the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection. The cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in health care settings, even in relatively low-prevalence populations, is similar to that of commonly accepted interventions, and such programs should be expanded. Copyright 2005 Massachusetts Medical Society.

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The differential infectivity and staged progression models for the transmission of HIV.

James M Hyman, Jia Li, E. Ann Stanley (1999)

Recent studies of HIV RNA in infected individuals show that viral levels vary widely between individuals and within the same individual over time. Individuals with higher viral loads during the chronic phase tend to develop AIDS more rapidly. If RNA levels are correlated with infectiousness, these variations explain puzzling results from HIV transmission studies and suggest that a small subset of infected people may be responsible for a disproportionate number of infections. We use two simple models to study the impact of variations in infectiousness. In the first model, we account for different levels of virus between individuals during the chronic phase of infection, and the increase in the average time from infection to AIDS that goes along with a decreased viral load. The second model follows the more standard hypothesis that infected individuals progress through a series of infection stages, with the infectiousness of a person depending upon his current disease stage. We derive and compare threshold conditions for the two models and find explicit formulas of their endemic equilibria. We show that formulas for both models can be put into a standard form, which allows for a clear interpretation. We define the relative impact of each group as the fraction of infections being caused by that group. We use these formulas and numerical simulations to examine the relative importance of different stages of infection and different chronic levels of virus to the spreading of the disease. The acute stage and the most infectious group both appear to have a disproportionate effect, especially on the early epidemic. Contact tracing to identify super-spreaders and alertness to the symptoms of acute HIV infection may both be needed to contain this epidemic.

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HIV transmission and the cost-effectiveness of methadone maintenance.

Margaret Brandeau, Gregory S. Zaric, Matthew P G Barnett (2000)

This study determined the cost-effectiveness of expanding methadone maintenance treatment for heroin addiction, particularly its effect on the HIV epidemic. We developed a dynamic epidemic model to study the effects of increased methadone maintenance capacity on health care costs and survival, measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We considered communities with HIV prevalence among injection drug users of 5% and 40%. Additional methadone maintenance capacity costs $8200 per QALY gained in the high-prevalence community and $10,900 per QALY gained in the low-prevalence community. More than half of the benefits are gained by individuals who do not inject drugs. Even if the benefits realized by treated and untreated injection drug users are ignored, methadone maintenance expansion costs between $14,100 and $15,200 per QALY gained. Additional capacity remains cost-effective even if it is twice as expensive and half as effective as current methadone maintenance slots. Expansion of methadone maintenance is cost-effective on the basis of commonly accepted criteria for medical interventions. Barriers to methadone maintenance deny injection drug users access to a cost-effective intervention that generates significant health benefits for the general population.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Public Health

Title: BMC Public Health

Publisher: BioMed Central

ISSN (Electronic): 1471-2458

Publication date Collection: 2011

Publication date (Electronic): 13 May 2011

Volume: 11

Page: 310

Affiliations

[1 ]Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada

[2 ]Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

[3 ]Center for Disease Modeling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada

Article

Publisher ID: 1471-2458-11-310

DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-310

PMC ID: 3115861

PubMed ID: 21569469

SO-VID: 08427d41-4ab0-4ea7-94c4-290ba6aa5a68

License:

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

HIV epidemic in Far-Western Nepal: effect of seasonal labor migration to India

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Abstract

Background

Methods

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Conclusion

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Global Health Next Generation Network

Most cited references 21

Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy.

The differential infectivity and staged progression models for the transmission of HIV.

HIV transmission and the cost-effectiveness of methadone maintenance.

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