How to Predict Future Migration: Different Methods Explained and Compared

Abstract

How many people will likely move in the decades to come? And where will they come from and move to? Policymakers worldwide have a keen interest in these questions. While long-term developments in international migration patterns are relevant for the demography and economy of a country, sudden flows—for example, in the case of humanitarian emergencies—pose institutional challenges regarding reception capacities, health systems, housing, education, and training programs amongst others. This chapter reviews key concepts related to migration scenarios and forecasting. It outlines different qualitative and quantitative approaches, compares different studies, and discusses the potential use of various techniques for academic and policy audiences.