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      Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19

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          Abstract

          The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collected from 31 st December 2020 to 3 rd April 2020 for 67 countries. Temperature data were split into quartiles for all three categories (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and mean temperature). The impact of three types of temperature data and policy of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 infection was determined by applying the multivariable two-level negative binomial regression analysis keeping daily new cases and daily mortality as outcome. The highest number of cases fell in the temperature categories as following: mean temperature in the second quartile (6°C to 10.5°C), median 26, interquartile range (IQR) 237; minimum temperature in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C), median 23, IQR 173; maximum temperature in the second quartile (10°C to 16°C), median 27.5, IQR 219. For the minimum temperature category, 28% statistically significant lower incidence was noted for new cases from the countries falling in the second quartile (2°C to 6°C) compared with countries falling in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.93). However, no statistically significant difference in incidence rate was observed for mean temperature categories in comparison to the first quartile. Countries with BCG vaccination policy had 58% less mortality as compared with countries without BCG coverage (IRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.95). Our exploratory study provides evidence that high temperature might not be associated with low transmissibility and countries having neonatal BCG vaccination policy had a low fatality rate of COVID-19.

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          SARS and MERS: recent insights into emerging coronaviruses

          Emmie de Wit, Neeltje van Doremalen, Darryl Falzarano … (2016)
          Key Points Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are zoonotic pathogens that can cause severe respiratory disease in humans. Although disease progression is fairly similar for SARS and MERS, the case fatality rate of MERS is much higher than that of SARS. Comorbidities have an important role in SARS and MERS. Several risk factors are associated with progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in SARS and MERS cases, especially advanced age and male sex. For MERS, additional risk factors that are associated with severe disease include chronic conditions such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cancer, renal and lung disease, and co-infections. Although the ancestors of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV probably circulate in bats, zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV required an incidental amplifying host. Dromedary camels are the MERS-CoV reservoir from which zoonotic transmission occurs; serological evidence indicates that MERS-CoV-like viruses have been circulating in dromedary camels for at least three decades. Human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV occurs mainly in health care settings. Patients do not shed large amounts of virus until well after the onset of symptoms, when patients are most probably already seeking medical care. Analysis of hospital surfaces after the treatment of patients with MERS showed the ubiquitous presence of infectious virus. Our understanding of the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is still incomplete, but the combination of viral replication in the lower respiratory tract and an aberrant immune response is thought to have a crucial role in the severity of both syndromes. The severity of the diseases that are caused by emerging coronaviruses highlights the need to develop effective therapeutic measures against these viruses. Although several treatments for SARS and MERS (based on inhibition of viral replication with drugs or neutralizing antibodies, or on dampening the host response) have been identified in animal models and in vitro studies, efficacy data from human clinical trials are urgently required. Supplementary information The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nrmicro.2016.81) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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            COVID-19, SARS and MERS: are they closely related?

            N Petrosillo, G Viceconte, O Ergonul … (2020)
            Background The 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a new human coronavirus which is spreading with epidemic features in China and other Asian countries; cases have also been reported worldwide. This novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is associated with a respiratory illness that may lead to severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Although related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), COVID-19 shows some peculiar pathogenetic, epidemiological and clinical features which to date are not completely understood. Aims To provide a review of the differences in pathogenesis, epidemiology and clinical features of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Sources The most recent literature in the English language regarding COVID-19 has been reviewed, and extracted data have been compared with the current scientific evidence about SARS and MERS epidemics. Content COVID-19 seems not to be very different from SARS regarding its clinical features. However, it has a fatality rate of 2.3%, lower than that of SARS (9.5%) and much lower than that of MERS (34.4%). The possibility cannot be excluded that because of the less severe clinical picture of COVID-19 it can spread in the community more easily than MERS and SARS. The actual basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19 (2.0–2.5) is still controversial. It is probably slightly higher than the R0 of SARS (1.7–1.9) and higher than that of MERS (<1). A gastrointestinal route of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, which has been assumed for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, cannot be ruled out and needs further investigation. Implications There is still much more to know about COVID-19, especially as concerns mortality and its capacity to spread on a pandemic level. Nonetheless, all of the lessons we learned in the past from the SARS and MERS epidemics are the best cultural weapons with which to face this new global threat.
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              Genomic characterization of a novel SARS-CoV-2

              Rozhgar A. Khailany, Muhamad Safdar, Mehmet Ozaslan (2020)
              A new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated with human to human transmission and extreme human sickness has been as of late announced from the city of Wuhan in China. Our objectives were to mutation analysis between recently reported genomes at various times and locations and to characterize the genomic structure of SARS-CoV-2 using bioinformatics programs. Information on the variation of viruses is of considerable medical and biological impacts on the prevention, diagnosis, and therapy of infectious diseases. To understand the genomic structure and variations of the SARS-CoV-2. The study analyzed 95 SARS-CoV-2 complete genome sequences available in GenBank, National MicrobiologyData Center (NMDC) and NGDC Genome Warehouse from December-2019 until 05 of April-2020. The genomic signature analysis demonstrates that a strong association between the time of sample collection, location of sample and accumulation of genetic diversity. We found 116 mutations, the three most common mutations were 8782C>T in ORF1ab gene, 28144T>C in ORF8 gene and 29095C>T in the N gene. The mutations might affect the severity and spread of the SARS-CoV-2. The finding heavily supports an intense requirement for additional prompt, inclusive investigations that combine genomic detail, epidemiological information and graph records of the clinical features of patients with COVID-19.
              Article 0 comments Cited 390 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Amit Kumar: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draft
                Shubham Misra:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4920-2573
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: ResourcesRole: Writing – original draft
                Vivek Verma:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2537-4431
                Role: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: Writing – review & editing
                Ramesh K. Vishwakarma: Role: Formal analysisRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: Visualization
                Vineet Kumar Kamal: Role: InvestigationRole: ValidationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Manabesh Nath:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5979-8377
                Role: Data curationRole: ResourcesRole: ValidationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Kiran Prakash: Role: InvestigationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Ashish Datt Upadhyay: Role: InvestigationRole: Validation
                Jitendra Kumar Sahu:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5194-9951
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draft
                Giovanni Lo Iacono: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS One
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Journal ID (pmc): plosone
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date (Electronic): 22 October 2020
                Publication date Collection: 2020
                Publication date PMC-release: 22 October 2020
                Volume: 15
                Issue: 10
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0240710
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
                [2 ] Department of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
                [3 ] Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, India
                [4 ] Department of Physiology, Government Medical College and Hospital, Chandigarh, India
                [5 ] Department of Biostatistics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
                [6 ] Pediatric Neurology Unit, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education & Research, Chandigarh, India
                University of Surrey, School of Veterinary Medicine, UNITED KINGDOM
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                ‡ All authors have contributed equally to this work and share the first authorship.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4920-2573
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2537-4431
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5979-8377
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5194-9951
                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-20-12867
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240710
                PMC ID: 7580966
                PubMed ID: 33091086
                SO-VID: fca6e0e8-cafd-48a6-b273-a658002f1043
                Copyright © © 2020 Kumar et al
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 2 May 2020
                Date accepted : 1 October 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 3, Pages: 14
                Funding
                Authors received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Medical Conditions
                Subject: Infectious Diseases
                Subject: Viral Diseases
                Subject: Covid 19
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Immunology
                Subject: Vaccination and Immunization
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Immunology
                Subject: Vaccination and Immunization
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Public and Occupational Health
                Subject: Preventive Medicine
                Subject: Vaccination and Immunization
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Population Biology
                Subject: Population Metrics
                Subject: Death Rates
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Diagnostic Medicine
                Subject: Virus Testing
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Epidemiology
                Subject: Earth Sciences
                Subject: Geography
                Subject: Human Geography
                Subject: Urban Geography
                Subject: Cities
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Human Geography
                Subject: Urban Geography
                Subject: Cities
                Subject: Research and Analysis Methods
                Subject: Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Subject: Statistical Methods
                Subject: Regression Analysis
                Subject: Physical Sciences
                Subject: Mathematics
                Subject: Statistics
                Subject: Statistical Methods
                Subject: Regression Analysis
                Subject: Biology and Life Sciences
                Subject: Population Biology
                Subject: Population Dynamics
                Subject: Geographic Distribution
                Custom metadata
                Data Availability The data underlying the results presented in the study are available from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
                Outbreaks COVID-19

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized

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