Circadian rhythm-related genes index: A predictor for HNSCC prognosis, immunotherapy efficacy, and chemosensitivity

Background Gene set enrichment (GSE) analysis is a popular framework for condensing information from gene expression profiles into a pathway or signature summary. The strengths of this approach over single gene analysis include noise and dimension reduction, as well as greater biological interpretability. As molecular profiling experiments move beyond simple case-control studies, robust and flexible GSE methodologies are needed that can model pathway activity within highly heterogeneous data sets. Results To address this challenge, we introduce Gene Set Variation Analysis (GSVA), a GSE method that estimates variation of pathway activity over a sample population in an unsupervised manner. We demonstrate the robustness of GSVA in a comparison with current state of the art sample-wise enrichment methods. Further, we provide examples of its utility in differential pathway activity and survival analysis. Lastly, we show how GSVA works analogously with data from both microarray and RNA-seq experiments. Conclusions GSVA provides increased power to detect subtle pathway activity changes over a sample population in comparison to corresponding methods. While GSE methods are generally regarded as end points of a bioinformatic analysis, GSVA constitutes a starting point to build pathway-centric models of biology. Moreover, GSVA contributes to the current need of GSE methods for RNA-seq data. GSVA is an open source software package for R which forms part of the Bioconductor project and can be downloaded at http://www.bioconductor.org.

Therapeutic antibodies that block the programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1)/programmed death-1 (PD-1) pathway can induce robust and durable responses in patients with various cancers, including metastatic urothelial cancer (mUC) 1–5 . However, these responses only occur in a subset of patients. Elucidating the determinants of response and resistance is key to improving outcomes and developing new treatment strategies. Here, we examined tumours from a large cohort of mUC patients treated with an anti–PD-L1 agent (atezolizumab) and identified major determinants of clinical outcome. Response was associated with CD8+ T-effector cell phenotype and, to an even greater extent, high neoantigen or tumour mutation burden (TMB). Lack of response was associated with a signature of transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) signalling in fibroblasts, particularly in patients with CD8+ T cells that were excluded from the tumour parenchyma and instead found in the fibroblast- and collagen-rich peritumoural stroma—a common phenotype among patients with mUC. Using a mouse model that recapitulates this immune excluded phenotype, we found that therapeutic administration of a TGF-β blocking antibody together with anti–PD-L1 reduced TGF-β signalling in stromal cells, facilitated T cell penetration into the centre of the tumour, and provoked vigorous anti-tumour immunity and tumour regression. Integration of these three independent biological features provides the best basis for understanding outcome in this setting and suggests that TGF-β shapes the tumour microenvironment to restrain anti-tumour immunity by restricting T cell infiltration.