Características y factores de riesgo de mortalidad por COVID-19 en Tamaulipas, a un año de pandemia Translated title: Characteristics and risk factors of COVID-19 mortality in Tamaulipas, one year after the pandemic
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Abstract
Resumen Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19), es una enfermedad viral prevalente y diseminada
a nivel mundial, considerada una pandemia con alta tasa de mortalidad. A la fecha
no existen estudios que describan la influencia de las variables asociadas a la enfermedad
en el estado fronterizo de Tamaulipas, México. El objetivo del presente estudio fue
evaluar y analizar las características, complicaciones, tasas de letalidad y factores
de riesgo asociados a mortalidad en paciente positivos a COVID-19 en el estado de
Tamaulipas, a un año de la emergencia local. Se utilizó la frecuencia de casos observados
en relación a características, complicaciones y comorbilidades para estimar prevalencias
y tasas de letalidad. Se ajustó un modelo de regresión logística multivariada para
estimar los factores de riesgo significativos y se utilizaron curvas de supervivencia
de Kaplan-Meier para describir las comorbilidades más importantes. Los análisis indicaron
una mayor infección en pacientes en edad productiva, con una probabilidad significativa
de muerte a partir de los 40 años, más evidente en pacientes masculinos. Los riesgos
asociados a la hospitalización, como intubación endotraqueal y neumonía, son factores
muy importantes. Las comorbilidades con alta prevalencia (diabetes, hipertensión y
obesidad) y enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) están asociados significativamente (P <
0.01) a mayor mortalidad por COVID-19 en pacientes positivos. El presente estudio
demostró algunos patrones generales de prevalencia y tasas de letalidad por COVID-19,
por lo que se sugieren particularidades en los factores asociados a mortalidad en
la población de Tamaulipas que requieren atención en sus grupos vulnerables, sobre
todo en posibles casos de rebrotes de la enfermedad.
Translated abstract
Abstract Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) is a prevalent and globally disseminated viral
disease that has become a pandemic associated with a high case fatality rate. To date,
there are no published studies that describe the influence of the variables associated
with the disease, specifically in the border state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. The objective
of the present study was to assess the characteristics, complications, fatality rates
and risk factors associated to mortality in patients positive to COVID-19 in Tamaulipas,
one year after the local emergency. Descriptive frequency of characteristics, complications
for prevalence and case fatality rates were used. A multivariate logistic regression
model was adjusted to estimate the meaningful risk factors, and Kaplan-Meier survival
curves were used to describe the most important comorbidities. The analysis indicated
higher infection rates in patients of productive age, with a significant death probability
in male patients from the age of 40. The risks associated with hospitalization, such
as endotracheal intubation and the presence of pneumonia are important risk factors.
Comorbidities with high prevalence; diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and chronic kidney
disease (CKD) were significantly associated (P < 0.01) with higher COVID-19 mortality
risk in the assessed population. The present study demonstrated some COVID-19 general
patterns on frequency and mortality rates. It also suggested particularities in factors
associated to mortality in the Tamaulipas population, which require proper attention
in vulnerable groups, especially in future outbreaks of the disease.
Background In December 2019, COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Wuhan. Data on the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with severe COVID-19 are limited. Objective The severity on admission, complications, treatment, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients were evaluated. Methods Patients with COVID-19 admitted to Tongji Hospital from January 26, 2020 to February 5, 2020 were retrospectively enrolled and followed-up until March 3, 2020. Potential risk factors for severe COVID-19 were analyzed by a multivariable binary logistic model. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for survival analysis in severe patients. Results We identified 269 (49.1%) of 548 patients as severe cases on admission. Elder age, underlying hypertension, high cytokine levels (IL-2R, IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-a), and high LDH level were significantly associated with severe COVID-19 on admission. The prevalence of asthma in COVID-19 patients was 0.9%, markedly lower than that in the adult population of Wuhan. The estimated mortality was 1.1% in nonsevere patients and 32.5% in severe cases during the average 32 days of follow-up period. Survival analysis revealed that male, elder age, leukocytosis, high LDH level, cardiac injury, hyperglycemia, and high-dose corticosteroid use were associated with death in patients with severe COVID-19. Conclusions Patients with elder age, hypertension, and high LDH level need careful observation and early intervention to prevent the potential development of severe COVID-19. Severe male patients with heart injury, hyperglycemia, and high-dose corticosteroid use may have high risk of death.
COVID-19 is a coronavirus outbreak that initially appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019, but it has already evolved into a pandemic spreading rapidly worldwide 1,2 . As of 18 March 2020, a total number of 194909 cases of COVID-19 have been reported, including 7876 deaths, the majority of which have been reported in China (3242) and Italy (2505) 3 . However, as the pandemic is still unfortunately under progression, there are limited data with regard to the clinical characteristics of the patients as well as to their prognostic factors 4 . Smoking, to date, has been assumed to be possibly associated with adverse disease prognosis, as extensive evidence has highlighted the negative impact of tobacco use on lung health and its causal association with a plethora of respiratory diseases 5 . Smoking is also detrimental to the immune system and its responsiveness to infections, making smokers more vulnerable to infectious diseases 6 . Previous studies have shown that smokers are twice more likely than non-smokers to contract influenza and have more severe symptoms, while smokers were also noted to have higher mortality in the previous MERS-CoV outbreak 7,8 . Given the gap in the evidence, we conducted a systematic review of studies on COVID-19 that included information on patients’ smoking status to evaluate the association between smoking and COVID-19 outcomes including the severity of the disease, the need for mechanical ventilation, the need for intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization and death. The literature search was conducted on 17 March 2020, using two databases (PubMed, ScienceDirect), with the search terms: [‘smoking’ OR ‘tobacco’ OR ‘risk factors’ OR ‘smoker*’] AND [‘COVID-19’ OR ‘COVID 19’ OR ‘novel coronavirus’ OR ‘sars cov-2’ OR ‘sars cov 2’] and included studies published in 2019 and 2020. Further inclusion criteria were that the studies were in English and referred to humans. We also searched the reference lists of the studies included. A total of 71 studies were retrieved through the search, of which 66 were excluded after full-text screening, leaving five studies that were included. All of the studies were conducted in China, four in Wuhan and one across provinces in mainland China. The populations in all studies were patients with COVID-19, and the sample size ranged from 41 to 1099 patients. With regard to the study design, retrospective and prospective methods were used, and the timeframe of all five studies covered the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic (December 2019, January 2020). Specifically, Zhou et al. 9 studied the epidemiological characteristics of 191 individuals infected with COVID-19, without, however, reporting in more detail the mortality risk factors and the clinical outcomes of the disease. Among the 191 patients, there were 54 deaths, while 137 survived. Among those that died, 9% were current smokers compared to 4% among those that survived, with no statistically significant difference between the smoking rates of survivors and non-survivors (p=0.21) with regard to mortality from COVID-19. Similarly, Zhang et al. 10 presented clinical characteristics of 140 patients with COVID-19. The results showed that among severe patients (n=58), 3.4% were current smokers and 6.9% were former smokers, in contrast to non-severe patients (n=82) among which 0% were current smokers and 3.7% were former smokers , leading to an OR of 2.23; (95% CI: 0.65–7.63; p=0.2). Huang et al. 11 studied the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 among 41 patients. In this study, none of those who needed to be admitted to an ICU (n=13) was a current smoker. In contrast, three patients from the non-ICU group were current smokers, with no statistically significant difference between the two groups of patients (p=0.31), albeit the small sample size of the study. The largest study population of 1099 patients with COVID-19 was provided by Guan et al. 12 from multiple regions of mainland China. Descriptive results on the smoking status of patients were provided for the 1099 patients, of which 173 had severe symptoms, and 926 had non-severe symptoms. Among the patients with severe symptoms, 16.9% were current smokers and 5.2% were former smokers, in contrast to patients with non-severe symptoms where 11.8% were current smokers and 1.3% were former smokers. Additionally, in the group of patients that either needed mechanical ventilation, admission to an ICU or died, 25.5% were current smokers and 7.6% were former smokers. In contrast, in the group of patients that did not have these adverse outcomes, only 11.8% were current smokers and 1.6% were former smokers. No statistical analysis for evaluating the association between the severity of the disease outcome and smoking status was conducted in that study. Finally, Liu et al. 13 found among their population of 78 patients with COVID-19 that the adverse outcome group had a significantly higher proportion of patients with a history of smoking (27.3%) than the group that showed improvement or stabilization (3.0%), with this difference statistically significant at the p=0.018 level. In their multivariate logistic regression analysis, the history of smoking was a risk factor of disease progression (OR=14.28; 95% CI: 1.58–25.00; p= 0.018). We identified five studies that reported data on the smoking status of patients infected with COVID-19. Notably, in the largest study that assessed severity, there were higher percentages of current and former smokers among patients that needed ICU support, mechanical ventilation or who had died, and a higher percentage of smokers among the severe cases 12 . However, from their published data we can calculate that the smokers were 1.4 times more likely (RR=1.4, 95% CI: 0.98–2.00) to have severe symptoms of COVID-19 and approximately 2.4 times more likely to be admitted to an ICU, need mechanical ventilation or die compared to non-smokers (RR=2.4, 95% CI: 1.43–4.04). In conclusion, although further research is warranted as the weight of the evidence increases, with the limited available data, and although the above results are unadjusted for other factors that may impact disease progression, smoking is most likely associated with the negative progression and adverse outcomes of COVID-19. Table 1 Overview of the five studies included in the systematic review Title Setting Population Study design and time horizon Outcomes Smoking rates by outcome Zhou et al. 9 (2020)Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital, Wuhan, China All adult inpatients (aged ≥18 years) with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 (191 patients) Retrospective multicenter cohort study until 31 January 2020 Mortality 54 patients died during hospitalisation and 137 were discharged Current smokers: n=11 (6%)Non-survivors: n=5 (9%)Survivors: n=6 (4%)(p=0.20) Current smoker vs non-smokerUnivariate logistic regression(OR=2.23; 95% CI: 0.65–7.63; p=0.2) Zhang et al. 10 (2020)Clinical characteristics of 140 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China No. 7 Hospital of Wuhan, China All hospitalised patients clinically diagnosed as ‘viral pneumonia’ based on their clinical symptoms with typical changes in chest radiology (140 patients) Retrospective 16 January to 3 February 2020 Disease Severity Non-severepatients: n=82Severe patients:n=58 Disease Severity Former smokers: n=7Severe: n=4 (6.9%)Non-severe: n=3 (3.7%) (p= 0.448) Current smokers: n=2Severe: n=2 (3.4%)Non-severe: n=0 (0%) Guan et al. 12 (2019)Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China Patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (1099 patients) Retrospective until 29 January 2020 Severity and admission to an ICU, the use of mechanical ventilation, or death Non-severe patients: n=926 Severe patients: n=173 By severity Severe cases16.9% current smokers5.2% former smokers77.9% never smokers Non-severe cases11.8% current smokers1.3% former smokers86.9% never smokers By mechanical ventilation, ICU or death Needed mechanical ventilation, ICU or died25.8% current smokers7.6% former smokers66.7% non-smokers No mechanical ventilation, ICU or death11.8% current smokers1.6% former smokers86.7% never smokers Huang et al. 11 (2020)Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China A hospital in Wuhan, China Laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV patients in Wuhan (41 patients) Prospective from 16 December 2019 to 2 January 2020 Mortality As of 22 January 2020, 28 (68%) of 41 patients were discharged and 6 (15%) patients died Current smokers: n=3ICU care: n=0Non-ICU care: n=3 (11%) Current smokers in ICU care vs non-ICU care patients (p=0.31) Liu et al. 13 (2019)Analysis of factors associated with disease outcomes in hospitalised patients with 2019 novel coronavirus disease Three tertiary hospitals in Wuhan, China Patients tested positive for COVID-19 (78 patients) Retrospective multicentre cohort study from 30 December 2019 to 15 January 2020 Disease progression 11 patients (14.1%) in the progression group 67 patients (85.9%) in the improvement/stabilization group 2 deaths Negative progression group: 27.3% smokersIn the improvement group: 3% smokers The negative progression group had a significantly higher proportion of patients with a history of smoking than the improvement/stabilisation group (27.3% vs 3.0%)Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the history of smoking was a risk factor of disease progression (OR=14.28; 95% CI: 1.58–25.00; p= 0.018)
Introduction: In the beginning of 2020, an unexpected outbreak due to a new corona virus made the headlines all over the world. Exponential growth in the number of those affected makes this virus such a threat. The current meta-analysis aimed to estimate the prevalence of underlying disorders in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods: A comprehensive systematic search was performed on PubMed, Scopus, Web of science, and Google scholar, to find articles published until 15 February 2020. All relevant articles that reported clinical characteristics and epidemiological information of hospitalized COVID-19 patients were included in the analysis. Results: The data of 76993 patients presented in 10 articles were included in this study. According to the meta-analysis, the pooled prevalence of hypertension, cardiovascular disease, smoking history and diabetes in people infected with SARS-CoV-2 were estimated as 16.37% (95%CI: 10.15%-23.65%), 12.11% (95%CI 4.40%-22.75%), 7.63% (95%CI 3.83%-12.43%) and 7.87% (95%CI 6.57%-9.28%), respectively. Conclusion: According to the findings of the present study, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), malignancy, and chronic kidney disease were among the most prevalent underlying diseases among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, respectively.
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