Predictors of progression in untreated keratoconus: a Save Sight Keratoconus Registry study

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Abstract

Aims

We set out to identify risk factors for progression in untreated keratoconus patients from 34 centres across Australia, New Zealand, Spain and Italy.

Methods

Patients were divided into ‘progressors’ and ‘stable’ patients for each clinical parameter: visual acuity (VA), steepest keratometry (maximum keratometry (Max-K)) and thinnest corneal thickness (TCT). Primary outcomes were the proportion of eyes with sustained progression in VA, Max-K or TCT within 3 years. Secondary outcomes included predictors of progression.

Results

There were 3994 untreated eyes from 2283 patients. The proportion of eyes with VA, Max-K and TCT progression at 1 year were 3.2%, 6.6% and 3.1% respectively. Factors associated with VA loss were higher baseline VA (HR 1.15 per logMAR line increase in VA; p<0.001) and steeper baseline Max-K (HR 1.07 per 1D increase; p<0.001). Younger baseline age was associated with Max-K steepening (HR 0.96 per year older; p=0.001). Thicker baseline TCT, steeper baseline Max-K and younger baseline age were associated with TCT thinning: (HR 1.08 per 10 µm increase in TCT; p<0.001), (HR 1.03 per 1D increase; p=0.02) and (HR 0.98 per year younger; p=0.01), respectively.

Conclusions

Steeper Max-K and younger age were the most clinically useful baseline predictors of progression as they were associated with worsening of two clinical parameters. Every 1D steeper Max-K was associated with a 7% and 3% greater risk of worsening VA and thinning TCT, respectively. Each 1 year younger was associated with a 4% and 2% greater risk of steepening Max-K and thinning TCT, respectively.

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Most cited references 37

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Global consensus on keratoconus and ectatic diseases.

Jose A P Gomes, Donald Tan, Christopher J. Rapuano … (2015)

Despite extensive knowledge regarding the diagnosis and management of keratoconus and ectatic corneal diseases, many controversies still exist. For that reason, there is a need for current guidelines for the diagnosis and management of these conditions. This project aimed to reach consensus of ophthalmology experts from around the world regarding keratoconus and ectatic diseases, focusing on their definition, concepts, clinical management, and surgical treatments. The Delphi method was followed with 3 questionnaire rounds and was complemented with a face-to-face meeting. Thirty-six panelists were involved and allocated to 1 of 3 panels: definition/diagnosis, nonsurgical management, or surgical treatment. The level of agreement considered for consensus was two thirds. Numerous agreements were generated in definitions, methods of diagnosing, and management of keratoconus and other ectatic diseases. Nonsurgical and surgical treatments for these conditions, including the use of corneal cross-linking and corneal transplantations, were presented in a stepwise approach. A flowchart describing a logical management sequence for keratoconus was created. This project resulted in definitions, statements, and recommendations for the diagnosis and management of keratoconus and other ectatic diseases. It also provides an insight into the current worldwide treatment of these conditions.

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Long-term results of riboflavin ultraviolet a corneal collagen cross-linking for keratoconus in Italy: the Siena eye cross study.

Aldo Caporossi, Cosimo Mazzotta, Stefano Baiocchi … (2010)

To report the long-term results of 44 keratoconic eyes treated by combined riboflavin ultraviolet A collagen cross-linking in the first Italian open, nonrandomized phase II clinical trial, the Siena Eye Cross Study. Perspective, nonrandomized, open trial. After Siena University Institutional Review Board approval, from September 2004 through September 2008, 363 eyes with progressive keratoconus were treated with riboflavin ultraviolet A collagen cross-linking. Forty-four eyes with a minimum follow-up of 48 months (mean, 52.4 months; range, 48 to 60 months) were evaluated before and after surgery. Examinations comprised uncorrected visual acuity, best spectacle-corrected visual acuity, spherical spectacle-corrected visual acuity, endothelial cells count (I Konan, Non Con Robo; Konan Medical, Inc., Hyogo, Japan), optical (Visante OCT; Zeiss, Jena, Germany) and ultrasound (DGH; Pachette, Exton, Pennsylvania, USA) pachymetry, corneal topography and surface aberrometry (CSO EyeTop, Florence, Italy), tomography (Orbscan IIz; Bausch & Lomb Inc., Rochester, New York, USA), posterior segment optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT; Zeiss, Jena, Germany), and in vivo confocal microscopy (HRT II; Heidelberg Engineering, Rostock, Germany). Keratoconus stability was detected in 44 eyes after 48 months of minimum follow-up; fellow eyes showed a mean progression of 1.5 diopters in more than 65% after 24 months, then were treated. The mean K value was reduced by a mean of 2 diopters, and coma aberration reduction with corneal symmetry improvement was observed in more than 85%. The mean best spectacle-corrected visual acuity improved by 1.9 Snellen lines, and the uncorrected visual acuity improved by 2.7 Snellen lines. The results of the Siena Eye Cross Study showed a long-term stability of keratoconus after cross-linking without relevant side effects. The uncorrected visual acuity and best spectacle-corrected visual acuity improvements were supported by clinical, topographic, and wavefront modifications induced by the treatment. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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A randomized, controlled trial of corneal collagen cross-linking in progressive keratoconus: three-year results.

Christine Wittig-Silva, Elsie Chan, Fakir Islam … (2014)

To report the refractive, topographic, and clinical outcomes 3 years after corneal collagen cross-linking (CXL) in eyes with progressive keratoconus. Prospective, randomized controlled trial. One hundred eyes with progressive keratoconus were randomized into the CXL treatment or control groups. Cross-linking was performed by instilling riboflavin 0.1% solution containing 20% dextran for 15 minutes before and during the 30 minutes of ultraviolet A irradiation (3 mW/cm(2)). Follow-up examinations were arranged at 3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. The primary outcome measure was the maximum simulated keratometry value (Kmax). Other outcome measures were uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA; measured in logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution [logMAR] units), best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA; measured in logMAR units), sphere and cylinder on subjective refraction, spherical equivalent, minimum simulated keratometry value, corneal thickness at the thinnest point, endothelial cell density, and intraocular pressure. The results from 48 control and 46 treated eyes are reported. In control eyes, Kmax increased by a mean of 1.20±0.28 diopters (D), 1.70±0.36 D, and 1.75±0.38 D at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively (all P <0.001). In treated eyes, Kmax flattened by -0.72±0.15 D, -0.96±0.16 D, and -1.03±0.19 D at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively (all P <0.001). The mean change in UCVA in the control group was +0.10±0.04 logMAR (P = 0.034) at 36 months. In the treatment group, both UCVA (-0.15±0.06 logMAR; P = 0.009) and BSCVA (-0.09±0.03 logMAR; P = 0.006) improved at 36 months. There was a significant reduction in corneal thickness measured using computerized videokeratography in both groups at 36 months (control group: -17.01±3.63 μm, P <0.001; treatment group: -19.52±5.06 μm, P <0.001) that was not observed in the treatment group using the manual pachymeter (treatment group: +5.86±4.30 μm, P = 0.181). The manifest cylinder increased by 1.17±0.49 D (P = 0.020) in the control group at 36 months. There were 2 eyes with minor complications that did not affect the final visual acuity. At 36 months, there was a sustained improvement in Kmax, UCVA, and BSCVA after CXL, whereas eyes in the control group demonstrated further progression. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.