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      Household cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030

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          Abstract

          Household air pollution generated from the use of polluting cooking fuels and technologies is a major source of disease and environmental degradation in low- and middle-income countries. Using a novel modelling approach, we provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of the percentages and populations mainly using 6 fuel categories (electricity, gaseous fuels, kerosene, biomass, charcoal, coal) and overall polluting/clean fuel use – from 1990-2020 and with urban/rural disaggregation. Here we show that 53% of the global population mainly used polluting cooking fuels in 1990, dropping to 36% in 2020. In urban areas, gaseous fuels currently dominate, with a growing reliance on electricity; in rural populations, high levels of biomass use persist alongside increasing use of gaseous fuels. Future projections of observed trends suggest 31% will still mainly use polluting fuels in 2030, including over 1 billion people in Sub-Saharan African by 2025.

          Abstract

          Household air pollution derived from cooking fuels is a major source of health and environmental problems. Here, the authors provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of cooking fuel usage from 1990 to 2030 and project that 31% of people will still be mainly using polluting fuels in 2030.

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          Bayesian Data Analysis

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            Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

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              Solid Fuel Use for Household Cooking: Country and Regional Estimates for 1980–2010

              Background: Exposure to household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels in simple stoves is a major health risk. Modeling reliable estimates of solid fuel use is needed for monitoring trends and informing policy. Objectives: In order to revise the disease burden attributed to household air pollution for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project and for international reporting purposes, we estimated annual trends in the world population using solid fuels. Methods: We developed a multilevel model based on national survey data on primary cooking fuel. Results: The proportion of households relying mainly on solid fuels for cooking has decreased from 62% (95% CI: 58, 66%) to 41% (95% CI: 37, 44%) between 1980 and 2010. Yet because of population growth, the actual number of persons exposed has remained stable at around 2.8 billion during three decades. Solid fuel use is most prevalent in Africa and Southeast Asia where > 60% of households cook with solid fuels. In other regions, primary solid fuel use ranges from 46% in the Western Pacific, to 35% in the Eastern Mediterranean and < 20% in the Americas and Europe. Conclusion: Multilevel modeling is a suitable technique for deriving reliable solid-fuel use estimates. Worldwide, the proportion of households cooking mainly with solid fuels is decreasing. The absolute number of persons using solid fuels, however, has remained steady globally and is increasing in some regions. Surveys require enhancement to better capture the health implications of new technologies and multiple fuel use.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                oliver.stoner@glasgow.ac.uk
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                4 October 2021
                4 October 2021
                2021
                : 12
                : 5793
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.8756.c, ISNI 0000 0001 2193 314X, School of Mathematics and Statistics, , University of Glasgow, ; Glasgow, UK
                [2 ]GRID grid.8391.3, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8024, Department of Mathematics, , University of Exeter, ; Exeter, UK
                [3 ]GRID grid.3575.4, ISNI 0000000121633745, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, , World Health Organization, ; Geneva, Switzerland
                [4 ]GRID grid.426429.f, ISNI 0000 0004 0580 3152, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, , The Cyprus Institute, ; Nicosia, Cyprus
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0612-4306
                Article
                26036
                10.1038/s41467-021-26036-x
                8490351
                34608147
                e60e5123-c6d7-4e49-8cab-5d91671ae86b
                © World Health Organization 2021

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 3 March 2021
                : 11 August 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000269, RCUK | Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC);
                Award ID: ES/T501906/1
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
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                © The Author(s) 2021

                Uncategorized
                energy justice,sustainability,statistics,developing world,energy access
                Uncategorized
                energy justice, sustainability, statistics, developing world, energy access

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