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      Sequence of 305,996 total hip and knee arthroplasties in patients undergoing operations on more than 1 joint

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          Abstract

          Background and purpose — Patient-specific data on multiple total arthroplasties (TA) of the lower limbs due to osteoarthritis (OA) are limited. We investigated the sequence of surgical procedures and risk factors for additional surgery in such patients.

          Patients and methods — 305,996 patients operated with a TA of the hip and/or knee due to OA were extracted from the Swedish National Hip (SHAR) and the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register (SKAR). 177,834 total hip arthroplasty (THA, 56% women, mean age 69 years) and 128,162 total knee arthroplasty (TKA, 60% women, mean age 69 years) procedures constituted the index operations. The mean, median, and maximum follow-up was 8, 6, and 23 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used and Kaplan–Meier survival curves were constructed.

          Results — Right-sided primary TA (34%) was most frequent. Subsequent surgery was most frequent after primary left-sided TKA (33%). The time interval to a second TA procedure was 3.1 (SD 3.2) years after TKA and 4.0 (SD 3.9) years after THA. After the index TA the probability of no subsequent surgery amounted to 64% (SD 0.3) for THA and 58% (SD 0.4) for TKA over 20 years. Lower age, female sex, left side, and TKA at index operation were associated with a higher probability for subsequent TA.

          Interpretation — Delineation of factors that influence risk and the size of the risk for subsequent TA in 1 of the 3 major remaining joints is of value for clinicians and healthcare providers in the decision-making process for future resource allocation.

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          Incidence of severe knee and hip osteoarthritis in relation to different measures of body mass: a population-based prospective cohort study.

          To determine in a prospective population-based cohort study relationships between different measures of body mass and the incidence of severe knee and hip osteoarthritis defined as arthroplasty of knee or hip due to osteoarthritis. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR), weight and percentage of body fat (BF%) were measured at baseline in 11,026 men and 16,934 women from the general population. The incidence of osteoarthritis over 11 years was monitored by linkage with the Swedish hospital discharge register. 471 individuals had knee osteoarthritis and 551 had hip osteoarthritis. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and physical activity, the relative risks (RR) of knee osteoarthritis (fourth vs first quartile) were 8.1 (95% CI 5.3 to 12.4) for BMI, 6.7 (4.5 to 9.9) for waist circumference, 6.5 (4.6 to 9.43) for weight, 3.6 (2.6 to 5.0) for BF% and 2.2 (1.7 to 3.0) for WHR. Corresponding RR for hip osteoarthritis were 2.6 (2.0 to 3.4) for BMI, 3.0 (2.3 to 4.0) for weight, 2.5 (1.9 to 3.3) for waist, 1.3 (0.99 to 1.6) for WHR and 1.5 (1.2 to 2.0) for BF%. All measures of overweight were associated with the incidence of knee osteoarthritis, with the strongest relative risk gradient observed for BMI. The incidence of hip osteoarthritis showed smaller but significant differences between normal weight and obesity. Our results support a major link between overweight and biomechanics in increasing the risk of knee and hip osteoarthritis in men and women.
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            Projections of total hip replacement in Sweden from 2013 to 2030

            Background and purpose The continuously increasing demand for joint replacement surgery in the past decades imposes higher constraints on the budgets of hospitals and healthcare providers. We undertook an analysis of historical trends in total hip replacement performed in Sweden between 1968 and 2012 in order to provide projections of future demand. Data and methods We obtained data on total hip replacements registered every year and on the evolution of the Swedish population between 1968 and 2012. We assumed the existence of a maximum incidence. So we adopted a regression framework that assumes the existence of an upper limit of total hip replacement incidence. Results We found that the incidence of total hip replacement will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 400 total hip replacements per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be reached around the year 2107. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total hip replacement will be 341 (95% prediction interval (PI): 302–375) and in 2030 it will be 358 (PI: 317–396). Using official forecasted population growth data, about 18,000 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and 20,000 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation Growing incidence, population growth, and increasing life expectancy will probably result in increased demand for hip replacement surgery. Our findings could serve as a basis for decision making.
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              Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden

              Background and purpose The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975–2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281–374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308–441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation Today’s levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Acta Orthop
                Acta Orthop
                IORT
                iort20
                Acta Orthopaedica
                Taylor & Francis
                1745-3674
                1745-3682
                October 2019
                8 July 2019
                : 90
                : 5
                : 450-454
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Section of Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital , Stockholm;
                [b ]Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register , Lund;
                [c ]Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Orthopedics, Lund University , Lund;
                [d ]Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register , Gothenburg;
                [e ]Department of Orthopaedics, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg , Gothenburg, Sweden
                Author notes
                Article
                1638177
                10.1080/17453674.2019.1638177
                6746289
                31282252
                dfab6e29-5a18-41a8-af8f-f4ba47c2e46c
                © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis on behalf of the Nordic Orthopedic Federation

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 2, Pages: 8, Words: 3437
                Categories
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                Orthopedics
                Orthopedics

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