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      Predictors of E-cigarette and Cigarette Use Trajectory Classes from Early Adolescence to Emerging Adulthood Across Four Years (2013–2017) of the PATH Study

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          This study examines predictors of trajectories of cigarette and e-cigarette use among a cohort of US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood. Comparing trajectories of each tobacco product is important to determine if different intervention targets are needed to prevent progression to daily use.

          Methods

          Latent trajectory class analyses identified cigarette and e-cigarette use (never, ever excluding past 12-month, past 12-month (excluding past 30-day (P30D)), P30D 1–5 days, P30D 6+ days) trajectory classes, separately, among US youth (12–17; N = 10,086) using the first 4 waves (2013–2017) of data from the nationally representative PATH Study. Weighted descriptive analyses described the class characteristics. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral predictors of class membership.

          Results

          Younger adolescents 12–15 years had lower tobacco use compared to 16–17 year olds and less stable classes. In the 16–17 year group, there were five unique trajectories of cigarette smoking, including a Persistent High Frequency class. Four e-cigarette use trajectories were identified; but not a persistent use class. Shared predictors of class membership for cigarettes and e-cigarettes included mental health problems, other tobacco use, marijuana use, and poorer academic achievement. Male sex and household tobacco use were unique e-cigarette trajectory class predictors.

          Conclusions

          There was no evidence that initiation with e-cigarettes as the first product tried was associated with cigarette progression (nor cigarettes as first product and e-cigarette progression). Interventions should focus on well-established risk factors such as mental health and other substance use to prevent progression of use for both tobacco products.

          Implications

          Using nationally representative data and definitions of use that take into account frequency and recency of use, longitudinal 4-year trajectories of e-cigarette and cigarette use among US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood were identified. Results among 16–17-year olds revealed a class of persistent high frequency cigarette smoking that was not identified for e-cigarette use. Cigarette use progression was not associated with e-cigarettes as the first product tried. Risk factors for progression of use of both products included mental health and other substance use, which are important prevention targets for both tobacco products.

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          Most cited references44

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          Vital Signs: Tobacco Product Use Among Middle and High School Students — United States, 2011–2018

          Introduction Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States; nearly all tobacco product use begins during youth and young adulthood. Methods CDC, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Cancer Institute analyzed data from the 2011–2018 National Youth Tobacco Surveys to estimate tobacco product use among U.S. middle and high school students. Prevalence estimates of current (past 30-day) use of seven tobacco products were assessed; differences over time were analyzed using multivariable regression (2011–2018) or t-test (2017–2018). Results In 2018, current use of any tobacco product was reported by 27.1% of high school students (4.04 million) and 7.2% of middle school students (840,000); electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) were the most commonly used product among high school (20.8%; 3.05 million) and middle school (4.9%; 570,000) students. Use of any tobacco product overall did not change significantly during 2011–2018 among either school level. During 2017–2018, current use of any tobacco product increased 38.3% (from 19.6% to 27.1%) among high school students and 28.6% (from 5.6% to 7.2%) among middle school students; e-cigarette use increased 77.8% (from 11.7% to 20.8%) among high school students and 48.5% (from 3.3% to 4.9%) among middle school students. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice A considerable increase in e-cigarette use among U.S. youths, coupled with no change in use of other tobacco products during 2017–2018, has erased recent progress in reducing overall tobacco product use among youths. The sustained implementation of comprehensive tobacco control strategies, in coordination with Food and Drug Administration regulation of tobacco products, can prevent and reduce the use of all forms of tobacco products among U.S. youths.
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            Tobacco Product Use and Associated Factors Among Middle and High School Students — 
United States, 2019

            Problem/Condition Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable disease, disability, and death in the United States. Most tobacco product use begins during adolescence. In recent years, tobacco products have evolved to include various smoked, smokeless, and electronic products. Period Covered 2019. Description of System The National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) is an annual, cross-sectional, school-based, self-administered survey of U.S. middle school (grades 6–8) and high school (grades 9–12) students. A three-stage cluster sampling procedure is used to generate a nationally representative sample of U.S. students attending public and private schools. NYTS is the only nationally representative survey of U.S. middle and high school students that focuses exclusively on tobacco use patterns and associated factors. NYTS is designed to provide national data on tobacco product use and has been conducted periodically during 1999–2009 and annually since 2011. Data from NYTS are used to support the design, implementation, and evaluation of comprehensive tobacco use prevention and control programs and to inform tobacco regulatory activities. Since its inception in 1999 through 2018, NYTS had been conducted via paper and pencil questionnaires. In 2019, NYTS for the first time was administered in schools using electronic data collection methods. CDC’s Office on Smoking and Health, in collaboration with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) Center for Tobacco Products, analyzed data from the 2019 NYTS to assess tobacco product use patterns and associated factors among U.S. middle and high school students. Overall, 19,018 questionnaires were completed and weighted to represent approximately 27.0 million students. On the basis of self-reported grade level, this included 8,837 middle school questionnaires (11.9 million students) and 10,097 high school questionnaires (15.0 million students); 84 questionnaires with missing information on grade level were excluded from school-level analyses. Results In 2019, an estimated 53.3% of high school students (8.0 million) and 24.3% of middle school students (2.9 million) reported having ever tried a tobacco product. Current (past 30-day) use of a tobacco product (i.e., electronic cigarettes [e-cigarettes], cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, hookahs, pipe tobacco, and bidis [small brown cigarettes wrapped in a leaf]) was reported by 31.2% of high school students (4.7 million) and 12.5% of middle school students (1.5 million). E-cigarettes were the most commonly cited tobacco product currently used by 27.5% of high school students (4.1 million) and 10.5% of middle school students (1.2 million), followed in order by cigars, cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, hookahs, and pipe tobacco. Tobacco product use also varied by sex and race/ethnicity. Among current users of each tobacco product, the prevalence of frequent tobacco product use (on ≥20 days of the preceding 30 days) ranged from 16.8% of cigar smokers to 34.1% of smokeless tobacco product users. Among current users of each individual tobacco product, e-cigarettes were the most commonly used flavored tobacco product (68.8% of current e-cigarette users). Among students who reported ever having tried e-cigarettes, the three most commonly selected reasons for use were “I was curious about them” (55.3%), “friend or family member used them” (30.8%), and “they are available in flavors, such as mint, candy, fruit, or chocolate” (22.4%). Among never users of each individual tobacco product, curiosity and susceptibility (a construct that can help to identify future tobacco product experimentation or use) was highest for e-cigarettes (39.1% and 45.0%, respectively) and cigarettes (37.0% and 45.9%, respectively). Overall, 86.3% of students who reported contact with an assessed potential source of tobacco product advertisements or promotions (going to a convenience store, supermarket, or gas station; using the Internet; watching television or streaming services or going to the movies; or reading newspapers or magazines) reported exposure to marketing for any tobacco product; 69.3% reported exposure to e-cigarette marketing and 81.7% reported exposure to marketing for cigarettes or other tobacco products. Among all students, perceiving no harm or little harm from intermittent tobacco product use (use on some days but not every day) was 28.2% for e-cigarettes, 16.4% for hookahs, 11.5% for smokeless tobacco products, and 9.5% for cigarettes. Among current users of any tobacco product, 24.7% reported experiencing cravings to use tobacco products during the past 30 days and 13.7% reported wanting to use a tobacco product within 30 minutes of waking. Moreover, 57.8% of current tobacco product users reported they were seriously thinking about quitting the use of all tobacco products and 57.5% reported they had stopped using all tobacco products for ≥1 day because they were trying to quit. Interpretation In 2019, approximately one in four youths (23.0%) had used a tobacco product during the past 30 days. By school level, this represented approximately three in 10 high school students (31.2%) and approximately one in eight middle school students (12.5%). Since 2014, e-cigarettes have been the most commonly used tobacco product among youths. Importantly, more than half of current youth tobacco product users reported seriously thinking about quitting all tobacco products in 2019. However, established factors of use and initiation, including the availability of flavors, exposure to tobacco product marketing, curiosity and susceptibility, and misperceptions about harm from tobacco product use, remained prevalent in 2019 and continue to promote tobacco product use among youths. Public Health Action The continued monitoring of all forms of youth tobacco product use and associated factors through surveillance efforts including NYTS is important to the development of public health policy and action at national, state, and community levels. Everyone, including public health professionals, health care providers, policymakers, educators, parents, and others who influence youths, can help protect youths from the harms of all tobacco products. In addition, the comprehensive and sustained implementation of evidence-based tobacco control strategies, combined with FDA’s regulation of tobacco products, is important for reducing all forms of tobacco product use among U.S. youths.
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              Design and methods of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

              This paper describes the methods and conceptual framework for Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collection. The National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is partnering with the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products to conduct the PATH Study under a contract with Westat.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Nicotine Tob Res
                Nicotine Tob Res
                nictob
                Nicotine & Tobacco Research
                Oxford University Press (US )
                1462-2203
                1469-994X
                March 2023
                11 May 2022
                11 May 2022
                : 25
                : 3
                : 421-429
                Affiliations
                Behavioral Health and Health Policy Practice, Westat Inc , Rockville, MD, USA
                Department of Oncology, Georgetown University Medical Center , Washington, DC, USA
                Behavioral Health and Health Policy Practice, Westat Inc , Rockville, MD, USA
                Behavioral Health and Health Policy Practice, Westat Inc , Rockville, MD, USA
                Behavioral Health and Health Policy Practice, Westat Inc , Rockville, MD, USA
                Office of Science, Center for Tobacco Products, Food and Drug Administration , Silver Spring, MD, USA
                National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health , Bethesda, MD, USA
                Kelly Government Solutions , Rockville, MD, USA
                Masonic Cancer Center, Department of Psychiatry, University of Minnesota , Minneapolis, MN, USA
                Office of Science, Center for Tobacco Products, Food and Drug Administration , Silver Spring, MD, USA
                Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina , Charleston, SC, USA
                Department of Health Behavior, Division of Cancer Prevention & Population Sciences, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center , Buffalo, NY, USA
                Office of Science, Center for Tobacco Products, Food and Drug Administration , Silver Spring, MD, USA
                National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health , Bethesda, MD, USA
                Kelly Government Solutions , Rockville, MD, USA
                Department of Health Behavior, Division of Cancer Prevention & Population Sciences, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center , Buffalo, NY, USA
                Office of Science, Center for Tobacco Products, Food and Drug Administration , Silver Spring, MD, USA
                National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health , Bethesda, MD, USA
                Office of Science, Center for Tobacco Products, Food and Drug Administration , Silver Spring, MD, USA
                National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health , Bethesda, MD, USA
                Department of Health Behavior, Division of Cancer Prevention & Population Sciences, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center , Buffalo, NY, USA
                School of Community Health Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno , Reno, NV, USA
                Author notes
                Corresponding Author: Cassandra A. Stanton, PhD, Behavioral Health and Health Policy Practice, Westat Inc, 1600 Research Boulevard, Rockville, MD 20850, USA. Telephone: 301-610-5181; E-mail: CassandraStanton@ 123456Westat.com

                This article was prepared while Hannah R. Day and Jean Limpert were employed at the Center for Tobacco Products, Food and Drug Administration.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5329-6261
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9097-6503
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3340-2818
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4880-2550
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1108-2609
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7519-4573
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7944-3570
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8278-0095
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3108-5118
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1400-5932
                Article
                ntac119
                10.1093/ntr/ntac119
                9910140
                35554569
                db2774d8-2db0-4338-9b44-e181ba121c1c
                © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com

                History
                : 27 April 2021
                : 10 February 2022
                : 09 May 2022
                : 31 August 2022
                Page count
                Pages: 9
                Funding
                Funded by: National Institute on Drug Abuse, DOI 10.13039/100000026;
                Funded by: National Institutes of Health, DOI 10.13039/100000002;
                Funded by: Center for Tobacco Products, DOI 10.13039/100010628;
                Funded by: Food and Drug Administration, DOI 10.13039/100009210;
                Funded by: Department of Health and Human Services, DOI 10.13039/100012737;
                Award ID: HHSN271201100027C
                Categories
                Original Investigations
                AcademicSubjects/MED00010
                AcademicSubjects/SOC02541

                Agriculture
                Agriculture

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