The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China

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Abstract

Hepatitis B virus infection is a major global public health concern. This study explored the epidemic characteristics and tendency of hepatitis B in 31 provinces of mainland China, constructed a SARIMA model for prediction, and provided corresponding preventive measures.

Monthly hepatitis B case data from mainland China from 2013 to 2020 were obtained from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Monthly data from 2013 to 2020 were used to build the SARIMA model and data from 2021 were used to test the model.

Between 2013 and 2020, 9,177,313 hepatitis B cases were reported in mainland China. SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model and its residual was white noise. It was used to predict the number of hepatitis B cases from January to December 2021, and the predicted values for 2021 were within the 95% confidence interval.

This study suggests that the SARIMA model simulated well based on epidemiological trends of hepatitis B in mainland China. The SARIMA model is a feasible tool for monitoring hepatitis B virus infections in mainland China.

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Most cited references 43

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Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013.

Aparna Schweitzer, Johannes Horn, Rafael T Mikolajczyk … (2015)

The quantification of the burden of disease attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the adaptation of prevention and control measures requires knowledge on its prevalence in the general population. For most countries such data are not routinely available. We estimated the national, regional, and global prevalence of chronic HBV infection.

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Hepatitis B virus infection.

Christian Trépo, Henry L Y Chan, Anna Lok (2014)

Hepatitis B virus infection is a major public health problem worldwide; roughly 30% of the world's population show serological evidence of current or past infection. Hepatitis B virus is a partly double-stranded DNA virus with several serological markers: HBsAg and anti-HBs, HBeAg and anti-HBe, and anti-HBc IgM and IgG. It is transmitted through contact with infected blood and semen. A safe and effective vaccine has been available since 1981, and, although variable, the implementation of universal vaccination in infants has resulted in a sharp decline in prevalence. Hepatitis B virus is not cytopathic; both liver damage and viral control--and therefore clinical outcome--depend on the complex interplay between virus replication and host immune response. Overall, as much as 40% of men and 15% of women with perinatally acquired hepatitis B virus infection will die of liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition to decreasing hepatic inflammation, long-term antiviral treatment can reverse cirrhosis and reduce hepatocellular carcinoma. Development of new therapies that can improve HBsAg clearance and virological cure is warranted.

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The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Jeffrey D Stanaway, Abraham D. Flaxman, Mohsen Naghavi … (2016)

Background With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013. Methods We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD’s cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). Findings Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86–0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38–1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6–32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1–44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45–0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61–1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2–33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9–45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990. Interpretation Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Daren Zhao

Qing Cao

Zhiyi Wang

Ruihua Zhang

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Medicine (Baltimore)

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Medicine (Baltimore)

Journal ID (publisher-id): MEDI

Title: Medicine

Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins (Hagerstown, MD )

ISSN (Print): 0025-7974

ISSN (Electronic): 1536-5964

Publication date Collection: 10 June 2022

Publication date (Electronic): 10 June 2022

Volume: 101

Issue: 23

Electronic Location Identifier: e29317

Affiliations

[a ]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

[b ]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

[c ]Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute,Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

[d ]School of Management,Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

Author notes

[∗ ]Correspondence: Huiwu Zhang, Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, No. 132, West Section, First Ring Road, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China. (e-mail: cdzhanghuiwu@ 123456163.com ).

Author information

Huiwu Zhang http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9406-8855

Article

Publisher ID: MD-D-21-06498 Accession ID: 29317

DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000029317

PMC ID: 9276452

PubMed ID: 35687775

SO-VID: da137713-50ec-485d-b2c4-9a5226eff9c5

License:

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

History

Date received : 20 September 2021

Date revision received : 31 March 2022

Date accepted : 29 April 2022

Funding

Funded by: National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China

Award ID: YLZLXZ-2021-004

Award Recipient : Qing Cao

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Keywords: epidemic,hepatitis b,periodicity,prediction,sarima model,seasonality

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Keywords: epidemic, hepatitis b, periodicity, prediction, sarima model, seasonality

The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China

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China Occupational Medicine

Most cited references 43

Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013.

Hepatitis B virus infection.

The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

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